By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-06-23 11:40:17
Ideally, the Opposition parties in India should have their tails up now. In the recently concluded assembly elections in four states and one UT, they managed to put it across the BJP in three states. Particularly satisfying for the opposition was the manner in which Mamata Banerjee's TMC kept them at bay in West Bengal despite the BJP employing heavy artillery in its bid to breach her citadel. Also satisfying was the result in Kerala where the BJP drew a blank, losing even the one seat it held in the outgoing assembly.
After the elections, Mamata Banerjee called for a federation of states to counter the so-called tyranny of the Centre. Newly-elected Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin also wrote to all opposition chief ministers asking them to jointly fight the Centre. Just yesterday, the Rashtra Manch roped in Sharad Pawar to host a meeting of leaders from various political parties (Invitees from the Congress chose not to attend) and eminent persons to come up with an alternate vision of development in India. These are signals that the opposition wants to come together and engage the BJP in one-to-one contests wherever possible to prevent division of opposition votes. It was expected that the opposition might start the process from the UP elections next year.
But there are many contradictions within the opposition. Akhilesh Yadav, in an interview to NDTV, has clearly said that his party will not form an alliance with either the BSP or the Congress and will fight the elections alone. He said that the Congress is finished in UP. He also said that although several BSP leaders were in touch with him, his party will not ally with them. Akhilesh has still not forgotten the much-touted but failed bhua-bhatija alliance between the two in 2019. Although politicians are known to change their minds, as of now this effectively kills the idea of opposition unity in the state. If the BSP and the SP are to fight the BJP in three-cornered contests, it will be advantage BJP. Akhilesh says the people of UP want change and that the internal conflicts in the BJP will result in the "BJP defeating the BJP".
That might or might not happen. But the bigger question of opposition unity remains unanswered. If local satraps are unwilling to cede space and are bent on protecting their own turfs, in states where there is more than one big opposition regional party, it will be very difficult to bring them together. UP, like earlier years, is going to be a test case for the opposition. If there is anti-incumbency against the Yogi government and if there are internal conflicts in the BJP in the state, the opposition should take advantage of the situation and bring about a change of government. But will they do so if they remain at loggerheads with each other and divide the opposition votes?