Covid 19: Has The Third Wave Set In?
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-07-13 05:30:06
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
Has the third wave set in? The answer is yes, according to Dr Vipin Srivastava, an eminent physicist and former pro-vice-chancellor of the University of Hyderabad. Dr Srivastava says that according to his calculations based on the daily number of fresh infections, recoveries and deaths due to Covid, the third wave set in on July 4. This, he says, is due to the fact that the pattern that emerges in the calculations on that date are similar to the patterns seen in the first week of February when the second wave set in. Other calculations also show that the fall in weekly cases was the slowest last week since the second wave started receding.
Calculations based on actual data are one of the best ways to predict waves and Dr Srivastava has done well to raise the issue. Other experts are also of the opinion that with too many infected persons remaining undetected in the second wave, many new variants of the virus being detected, the vaccination drive not happening at the desired pace and with restrictions being relaxed, there is a good chance of the third wave setting in sooner rather than later. The IMA said yesterday that the third wave is "inevitable and imminent" and warned against complacency.
What most experts agree on is that if Covid-appropriate behavior is not strictly followed till 60 percent of the population is fully vaccinated (and for some time thereafter too) the chances of a third, or even a fourth, wave will always remain. While the Centre has repeatedly warned people against dropping their guard and has also frowned upon 'revenge' tourism, administrations all over India are showing the same laxity and a reluctance to enforce DM Act rules with an iron hand that led to the second wave of infections.
It has to be recognized that people in India do not listen to gentle pleas and ignore advisories or reminders (as the images and videos of tourists in hill stations show). The Covid norms have to be enforced strictly and people have to be fined for not following them. No states should be allowed to sanction the holding of big religious events. As restrictions are removed and people start coming out of their homes, increased and regular policing is necessary to ensure that they strictly follow Covid-appropriate behavior at all times.
