Covid Curve Is Not Flattening Despite Fall In Fresh Cases
Yogendra is freelance writer
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By Yogendra
First publised on 2020-09-23 13:11:42
About the Author
Yogendra is freelance writer
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Fresh Covid-19 cases have shown a fall for the first times in the week ended Sunday, the 20th September, since testing started in India. While it is good news, it should not be seen in isolation. There are many factors that contributed to the hike in reported cases and similarly there are many factors that have contributed to the decline. Further, the rise or fall in new cases does not by itself indicate much. The numbers of people tested during the period, the number of recoveries, the number of active cases and the number of deaths have all got to be studied in depth to arrive at the conclusion if the plateau has been reached or if India is on its way to flatten the curve.
Once we look at the numbers tested during the period, we find that apart from the record tests done on Saturday (more than 12 lakh) during the week in question, the total number of tests conducted was much lower than that conducted in the preceding week. In the week ended September 13, about 7688000 tests were done while in the week ended September 20 only 7013500 tests were conducted. With nearly 675000 lesser tests in the week, it was a given that the number of fresh cases would show a fall.
Secondly, the positivity rate as a percentage of the number of people tested is rising. Between the months of August and September, the positivity rate has risen by nearly 1.5%, from 7.7% in August to more than 9% now. This is a sign that more people are getting infected and this is a cause for worry. A positivity rate of more than 5%, as per WHO recommendations, does not suggest that the outbreak is under control. Hence, India cannot yet claim to have reached the stage where the Covid curve is flattening. It has to ramp up testing further and let the correct picture emerge.
