Uttar Pradesh: BJP Likely To Storm Back To Power
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-03-07 15:51:42
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
View all posts by this Author
The Uttar Pradesh exit poll proves many things. It proves that even if there was anti-incumbency, it was not strong enough to unseat the Yogi Adityanath government. It proves that despite raising the pitch, instigating defections from the BJP and turning the fight into Mandal versus Kamandal, Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajvadi Party (SP) could not breast the tape. It proves that the speculation that the Jats and farmers would vote en bloc against the BJP also did not happen. It proves that just the consolidation of the Yadav and Muslim votes, along with some OBC votes, is not enough to shake, let alone break into, the BJP citadel. It also proves that the social engineering put in place by the wily Amit Shah in UP (following the lead of former BJP leader K N Govindacharya) is durable and the OBCs have not deserted the BJP despite several of their leaders leaving the party.
Most exit polls are giving the BJP nearly 240 seats. Some polls even give it up to 320 seats. At the lower end of the predictions, the BJP gets only 225 seats, 90 seats lesser than the 312 it won in 2017. If we dig deeper, we find that its vote share has actually increased this time. The lesser number of seats is because the SP managed to increase its vote share by a huge margin. But the SP could not win a majority because it did not get the votes at the BJP's expense. Both BJP and SP gained voters from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress. While the final figures will be out only on March 10, the exit poll trends clearly show that the people have voted positively for the BJP. They have also voted for the SP but that is because they have rejected the other opposition parties and not because they have rejected the BJP.
As per the exit polls, the clear mandate in UP is in favour of the BJP. Yes it may lose more than 70 seats (or even win 10 more if some polls are to be believed) but that it due to a host of factors, not the least being some amount of anti-incumbency and a resurgent SP. But in a state as big as UP, it is not enough to be strong in some pockets or have the full support of some castes and communities. The consistency has to be maintained across the state and among all communities and SP was found wanting in this, despite the huge crowds that flocked its rallies. The BJP managed to retain its support base despite several high profile desertions and is likely to come back to power comfortably. This will be the first time in 40 years that an incumbent will be voted back to power in UP.
