700000 Daily Cases By The End Of The Month?
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-04-21 14:22:24
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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
One knows that this article is going to called alarmist and one can also be called a prophet of doom, but the way Covid cases as rising, and more importantly, the rate at which they are increasing, makes it almost certain that India will touch a daily count of 500000 fresh cases by April 27 and this may go up to 700000 by April 30 unless the positivity rate is drastically reduced in the next few days (or alternately, if fewer people are tested, by design, to suppress the figure).
For, as of now, the national positivity rate is hovering around11.5 percent. Which means for every 200 tests conducted, 23 people are found Covid-positive. At this rate, with the base of 295000 on April 20, there will be nearly 700000 daily cases by April 30. Even if some states do manage to bring down the positivity rate to such an extent that the national rate falls to first to 10% in the next couple of days and then to 8% in about a week, it will not make much difference. For, instead of touching 700000 by the end of the month, we will still go up to 600000 or beyond.
But the way the states, especially the majorly infected ones, are going, bringing down the positivity rate drastically in the short term seems impossible. Of course if we have a lockdown (in Delhi) or lockdown like restrictions (in Maharashtra) in place and if testing is reduced due to that, there might be a huge drop in the positivity rates there which now hover in the range of 25-35 percent. But that would be illusionary, as it will rise again once people start moving about and testing is resumed at earlier levels.
All states where the second wave is severe will have to repeat the basics employed to fight coronavirus in the first wave. They will have to test more, trace more, isolate more and treat more. In addition, they will have to vaccinate more. Containment zones will have to return with a vengeance and even a single infection will have to be treated as a big danger. Houses, lanes and entire areas will have to be barricaded once more if infection is found in a few people.
On the roads, Covid restrictions like wearing masks, sanitizing hands and keeping crowds thin will have to be strictly enforced. The time for periodic drives to check compliance is over. Now there has to be continuous surveillance to ensure that people fall in line. Heavy fines need to be imposed on offenders. Wholesale and retail markets need to be particularly monitored and targeted drives to test for Covid must be conducted there. Gatherings of more than 20 people for any purpose must be immediately banned all over India. If we want to stop the rapid spread of the virus, people need to be disciplined and the administration needs to do that with an iron hand. For, fighting Covid is more important than any war India has fought and the army this time, apart form the frontline workers, is made up of all citizens of this country.
pic courtesy: times of india
