As Central UP Votes Today, The Overall Picture Is Still Unclear
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
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By Linus Garg
First publised on 2022-02-27 05:10:43
About the Author
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
View all posts by this Author
As central UP votes for 61 seats in 11 districts in the 5th phase of polling today with only two phases remaining, it is still not clear which way the wind is blowing and who will emerge victorious. There is a strange reluctance on part of the voters to open up about their preference this time. Normally, when this kind of situation is witnessed, it results in the voters throwing out the incumbent government.
But the opinion polls had all shown that although the Samajvadi Party (SP)-led alliance had created a huge buzz and was fast emerging as the main challenger to the BJP, they had predicted that the surge was not enough to unseat the Yogi government and the BJP is expected to return to power but with a vastly reduced majority. In Central UP, the BJP is expected to walk away with nearly 45 of the 61 seats.
The SP had done all it could before the elections to dent BJPs fortune. In western UP it had successfully used the Jat and farmer anger against the BJP to its advantage by allying with Jayant Choudhary and other smaller outfits. In eastern UP, it had punctured the BJP dreams of getting support from OBCs (its main strength since 2014) by snaring away some important OBC leaders. The crowds at SP rallies continued to swell with each passing day and the BJP was on the defensive.
But as polling goes on, experts are not sure what effect the SP pre-poll machinations are going to have on voting patterns. It is sure that unlike previous years, Muslim vote is likely to solidly rally behind SP as the Congress is nowhere in the picture while the BSP is not putting much effort in its campaign this time. Also, the Muslims do not want to 'waste' their vote and see SP as the party most likely to challenge the BJP. But it is still not clear which way the Jats and the OBCs will vote, making this one of the most unpredictable elections in UPs history.
For the BJP, it would be important for the upper caste Hindus to rally behind it. It would also be important for it to retain the OBC and Dalit votes. But that support is not visible on the ground. BJP's overplay of Hindutva and temple politics might not gel with the OBCs and Dalits. There is huge anti-incumbency against the Yogi Adityanath government and the BJP caste arithmetic has also gone awry this time. But the party is strong in booth-level management and has committed voters who will come out and vote for it. Hence, it is safe to predict that although the BJP will lose both vote share and seats, it might still return to power in UP.
