As The Second Wave Shows Signs Of Receding, Mistakes Must Not Be Repeated
By A Special Correspondent
First publised on 2021-06-03 11:05:41
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The good news is that the second Covid wave is finally receding. The numbers, especially the seven-day moving average of fresh cases, total active cases and the number of deaths have all declined (although deaths are still very high) substantially from their alarming highs in May. The major hotspots, Maharashtra and Delhi, have controlled the spurt by introducing judicious curbs. Karnataka, on the other hand, has still not achieved good results and has announced that the restrictions will be extended till the middle of June. The Centre has already advised the states that the unlocking process this time will have to be carried out gradually and patiently. Also, the major thing to keep in mind is that even as restrictions are removed gradually, at no point of time till December should there be any relaxation in wearing of masks, maintaining physical distance and providing hand sanitizers in markets, malls and office complexes. One of the major reason for the ferocity of the second wave was the all round laxity that had crept in after the first wave positivity rate had gone below 5%. Another thing to be kept in mind is that the testing drive must not slacken even after unlocking. Indian has a capacity to test 30 lakh people daily. We have been, on an average, testing just 16 lakh people daily. On some days testing has gone up to 21 lakh but that has been rare. It I required that more than 25 lakh people are tested daily to know the real positivity rate. That will help us know the onset of the third wave early and we can take preventive measures like marking intensive containment zones to prevent its rapid spread.
The bad news is that the third wave is likely to happen as the numbers of infections in the second wave are very high. Also, since not enough testing was done, there are many who are infected but have escaped detection. This indicates that there is floating population of infected persons who might start a third wave. Since the third wave is likely to attack kids, we have to prepare specially for that. Vaccine trials have already begun on person below 18 years of age. Depending on the results, the vaccination drive will have to be opened for them too.
The only thing that can beat the virus (apart from religiously following Covid protocols for now) is to fully vaccinate (by giving both the doses) at least 60 to 65 percent of the adult population (and minors too, if the clinical trials of vaccines for them are successful). The government has said that it expects to achieve this by December (India has till date fully vaccinated just marginally above 3 percent of its population). Some ministers have also said that more than 1 crore vaccine doses will be administered daily from July-end. Experts have contested this - both in terms of availability of doses and the ability to provide the infrastructure for so many daily jabs. The Supreme Court has already asked the government to provide a roadmap of how it is going to achieve full vaccination of eligible adults by December. Once the government puts that before the court, we will know whether it has the numbers right or whether it is just building castles in the air. For the sake of the nation, let us hope that the government has, for once, done its planning well and will be able to procure the doses, provide the infrastructure and vaccinate the people. Our success in the fight against the virus depends entirely on that.
