January 22, 2025

In a gross miscalculation that has made BJP the laughing stock of the world, BS Yeddyurappa could not manage the numbers and resigned rather than face defeat on the floor of the assembly. His stint as chief minister lasted just 2 days.

Although his confidence (“We will win 100%”) and his gung-ho attitude pointed to deals having struck in advance and many political observers thought he would sail through the vote of confidence, it seems that his charms, along with inducements and threats, did not work this time.

It is an unforgivable error of judgment on his part. One is surprised how the handlers appointed by the BJP and Amit Shah allowed him to undertake this misadventure. They were perhaps sure that he would manage numbers like he did with Operation Lotus back in 2008. But 2018 is a different scenario and now every opposition party is ganging up against the BJP, buoyed by the realization that Modi’s charishma is fading fast and a united opposition has a real chance in 2019 general elections.

It is also surprising that Amit Shah could not spot the opportunity in breaking the Congress-JD(S) alliance at a future date and discredit both the parties rather than risk forming a government without the requisite numbers. It would have been to BJP’s advantage to let the combine form the government and then snare disgruntled MLAs to break the alliance. On the other hand, it was always going to be tough to get 8 to 10 MLAs to crossover in the charged situation.

The BJP asked for one week in the Supreme Court. Now it will have six months (when it can call for the next vote of confidence, provided Congress-JD(S) win the one after swearing in). It is a given that Yeddyurappa is not going to sit idle. He is going to identify disgruntled MLAs and will try and break the alliance. The drama is not over yet, but the present defeat is very demoralizing for the BJP.