Graded Exit Heralds Spike In Cases, So Will Complete Exit See An Exponential Rise?
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
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By Linus Garg
First publised on 2020-05-05 13:35:18
About the Author
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
View all posts by this Author
The Union health ministry has said that the extension of the country-wide lockdown should not be seen as Lockdown 3.0 but should instead be seen as Exit 2.0. It was referring to the fact that it was the second time that the Centre had allowed many activities to resume in several areas in a graded exit plan. But Lockdown 3.0 or Exit 2.0, the way cases are rising every day for the last four days, the fact that migrant workers are testing positive on returning home and the way people are making a mockery of all health advisories while thronging liquor shops that have reopened after 40 days, things look bleak going forward.
Several research groups have forecasted that there are likely to be 60000 active cases in India by May 20 (the number of active cases as of Monday are just 31000). The Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS), a Kolkata based organization, has said that the number of active Covid cases will see a peak in India by end of June when the number could swell to 1.5 lakh. However, the study also said that this number can be halved if testing is done rigorously and lockdown measures are followed diligently in targeted zones.
But perhaps the researches or studies conducted until now have not factored in two vital things - one, the spread of the virus by migrant workers returning home and two, the chaos and defiance of social distancing norms and other health measures that are likely to happen once relaxation of restrictions start happening. While the nation is striving to convert containment zones to red, red to orange and orange to green, several districts in several states have reported that the reverse is happening. In Tamil Nadu, for instance, it is being found that people who are returning to their districts after visiting the Koyambedu wholesale market in Chennai are testing positive in large numbers. This is a dangerous development and if that happens with other wholesale markets (the Kolkata police is already focusing on the Posta and Mechu Bazar wholesale markets to prevent that), it might lead to re-imposition of severe restrictions in large parts of the country.
As the country braces for an exit from the lockdown on May 18 or at least another round of relaxations, there is a likelihood that Covid cases will rise exponentially after that. It is good to keep the most severe restrictions only for the containment zones, but what happens when large areas turn into such zones? All the major cities in India have more than 200 containment zones. If such zones keep on increasing due relaxations in red zones, entire cities will have to be placed under complete lockdown again. That would be a tragedy. Hence, the government should desist from taking decisions such as reopening liquor shops in red zones unless the administration can handle the crowd in a better way. Things are under relative control only because public transport has not resumed service. Once that happens and once people start moving about, there is likely to be a huge spike in Covid cases. Hence, the figure of 1.5 lakh active cases by June-end is highly understated. If exit happens after May 17 and public transport services are resumed, one feels that this number will be nearer to 3 lakh or even more.
