oppn parties Gujarat Elections: Is BJP Facing Defeat?

News Snippets

  • All 6 Bahujan Samaj Party MLAs merge with the Congress in Rajasthan
  • Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee to meet PM Modi on Wednesday, state issues on the agenda
  • Pakistan to open Kartarpur corridor on Nov 9
  • Rajeev Kumar, ex-police commissioner of Kolkata and wanted for questioning in the Sarada scam does not appear before the CBI despite the state administration requesting him to do so
  • Supreme Court asks the Centre to restore normalcy in J&K but keeping national interest in mind
  • As Trump accepts the invitation to attend a programme in Houston with PM Modi, India rushes to settle trade issues with US
  • After drone attack on Aramco's Suadi Arabia facility, oil prices jump 19% in intra-day trading causing worries for India
  • Imran Khan raises nuclear war bogey again, says if Pakistan loses a conventional war, it might fight till the end with its nuclear arsenal
  • Searching for Rajeev Kumar, ex-CP, Kolkata Police, the CBI approaches state DGP to know about his whereabouts
  • Ferry overturns in the river Godavari in Andhra. 46 feared dead
  • Supreme Court to hear pleas on Jammu & Kashmir today
  • Ghulam Nabi Azad moves Supreme Court for ordering the government to allow him to visit his family in J&K
  • GST Council meeting to focus on leakages and evasions, expected to tighten processes, especially regarding input tax credit
  • Finance minister, citing figures for July 2019, says that industrial production and fixed investment is showing signs of revival
  • Amit Shah's comment on Hindi as the unifying language draws the ire of MK Stalin and Siddaramaiah. Stalin says the country is India not Hindia
Sunni Wakf Board and Nirvani Akhara write to the Supreme Court for a negotiated settlement to the Ayodhya dispute
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Gujarat Elections: Is BJP Facing Defeat?

By Sunil Garodia

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Writes for a number of publications.
What kind of churning is going on in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi? Slated to go to the polls in December, the state is witnessing political upheaval of the kind it has not seen in the recent past. Starting with trouble in the Congress party where the BJP was accused of trying to poach MLAs to the patidar agitation and the so-called ‘social engineering ,‘ everything seems to be happening in the state, much like the slog overs in the second innings of a highly charged T20 match.

The opinion polls are revealing. The BJP vote share is sliding south. From 59% about three months ago, it has now fallen to 49%. The Congress has increased its share from 31 to 39. So, is there for once truth in what Rahul Gandhi says about the BJP camp sporting grim faces?

It has to be recognized that the much touted Gujarat model failed once Modi shifted to the higher office in Delhi (although many believe that the model was never there in the first place). Neither Anandiben Patel nor Vijay Rupani could capitalize on the charisma of Modi and keep things going smoothly as the stalwart had expected. Even Amit Shah found that helming the party at the national level was a tough job and ruling Gujarat by remote control in tandem was impossible. Couple this with infighting in the party and BJP woes in Gujarat seem to have reached their zenith before the polls.

As if this was not enough, notebandi and GST put the final nails in the coffin. Trader discontent (and Gujarat is basically full of the trading community) has reached a level where people speak openly against Modi and his decisions. Since the textile and gem/diamond trades were largely untaxed and dependant on cash transactions, mostly in the parallel economy, the income of the traders has been hit hard by both the above disruptions. No amount of explanations by party big-wigs, including Modi and Shah, seem to have pacified the trading community who seem to have turned their back on the BJP.

The Congress, on the other hand, smartly out-maneuvered the BJP in the MLA poaching episode after a few initial hiccups. It has embarked upon a policy of local tie-ups and has tried to win the backward classes and dalits by forging alliances with various organizations representing their cause. The party has come to realize that in the current atmosphere of backlash against the BJP, it can be beaten in one-to-one contests. Hence, it is trying to eliminate multi-cornered polls in as many seats as it can. This is smart policy and can bring the party an unexpected win.

But no one can underestimate the charisma of Narendra Modi and the wiles of Amit Shah. Gujarat is their home state and they will not let go of the state so easily. While Narendra Modi is going to lay down his charm like never before and will play the “son-of-the-soil” card to the hilt, Shah is expected to use all weapons in his armoury of wiles to try and out-wit the Congress. It remains to be seen who wins in this contest which was earlier seen to be one-sided but is now fast turning into an evenly matched contest.

image coutresy: gujaratelections.in