December 21, 2024

How Long Will India Remain Neutral If Russia Invades Ukraine?

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-02-23 07:11:06

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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

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The rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the possibility of war have put India in a quandary. Despite having close ties with Russia, India cannot be seen as supporting the Russian move (which in any case is against India's policy) and it cannot openly criticize the Russians too. Hence, India has adopted a diplomatic stance by saying that it is closely watching the developments and the matter should be resolved through dialogue. It says that negotiations must take place between Ukraine and Russia and if needed between Russia and the NATO to de-escalate tensions.

At the UN, India's Permanent Representative Ambassador T S Trimurti stated in clear terms that "we cannot afford to have a military escalation" as the developments had the potential to undermine peace and security of the region. India's position is consistent - it wants the parties to engage in dialogue and resolve the differences through negotiations. India knows war will have serious repercussions on its economy and wants Russia and Ukraine to avoid it at any cost.

For India, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will test its efforts in balancing its ties with the US and Russia. The other big problem is that the conflict will bring Russia closer to China, as was evident during the Xi-Putin summit at the Beijing Winter Olympics. The Sino-Russian axis will develop into a threat for India as Russia, influenced by China, will become increasingly unable to support India on a host of issues. On the other hand, if war happens, the US will levy severe sanctions against Russia and will also put pressure on India. In such a situation, it will become very difficult for India to maintain its neutral stance.