oppn parties How Will The Poll Results Affect The Stock Market?

News Snippets

  • Row erupts over CBSE's decision to reduce the syllabus by 30% this academic year due to the disruption caused by the pandemic. Experts say several lessons that the ruling dispensation does not like are being removed
  • Gangster Vikas Dubey's nephew killed in an encounter by UP police who also pick up his key aide Raju Khullar and his son Adarsh
  • MHA sets up an inter-ministerial committee to probe the alleged financial misdeeds of three trusts linked to the Gandhi family
  • Actor Jagdeep, most famous for his Soorma Bhopali act in Sholay, passes away
  • Pakistan says Kulbhushan Jadhav has declined to file a review petition and will stick to his mercy plea. India calls it a farce
  • India to keep a strict vigil to confirm that the Chinese are abiding by the deal on the pullback at the LAC
  • US secretary of state Mike Pompeo says China was "incredibly aggressive" at the LAC and India did its best to respond calmly
  • India reaches 700000 corona cases and 20000 deaths due to the disease
  • West Bengal plans to create a plasma bank for Covid patients
  • Chargesheet filed against arrested J&K police officer Devinder Singh and others. Singh accused of being a Pakistani informer
  • Very few people visit ASI monuments that were opened on Monday
  • Sensex gains 1500 points in four trading sessions in July
  • The Centre says final year university exams should be held in September and degrees should only be given on the basis of exams
  • Trade surplus for India in June for the first time in 18 years
  • Highway ministry increases the border roads upkeep fund by four times
After four months of standoff, including a bloody clash, India and China agree on pulling back troops at the LAC
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How Will The Poll Results Affect The Stock Market?

By Linus Garg
First publised on 2019-05-22 11:33:56

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
The stock markets dropped yesterday after touching record highs on the day exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA. That day, stocks had shown the highest single day jump in 10 years. But most analysts say that the drop yesterday was on account of profit taking and is not a reversal of the uptrend. In fact, they say that if results mirror the exit polls, the Nifty well might breach the 12000 level or even inch close to 12500.

To support their theory, analysts point out to the open interest being shown by traders at 12000 and even 12500 levels. They say that since no trades are being squared up for these levels – in fact, trades are being added – it is clear that the market is going to move upwards and touch dizzying heights. Only a complete reversal of the trends shown in the exit polls will cause a crash in the market. Analysts feel that given that most exit polls show a similar trend of majority for NDA, such a scenario is unlikely.

But what should a small trader do in such a scenario? The markets are already at very high levels. One feels that apart from a small rally, the markets have already taken in the fact that the NDA will return again ensuring policy continuity. But exit polls have gone wrong in the past. A small trader is more likely to burn his fingers at these levels if he or she does not do his homework properly. The chances of making money in the short term are decidedly low. Hence, small traders will find it better not to invest until a clearer trend emerges.