TINA Factor: The AIADMK and The BJP Have To Stick Together
By A Special Correspondent
First publised on 2020-11-24 13:11:43
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The display of bonhomie and mutual back-slapping in Tamil Nadu was on full steam after the BJP and the AIADMK decided to continue their "victorious" alliance for the ensuing state elections. Home minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah was visiting the state to lay the foundation stones of several projects in Chennai. While the AIADMK leadership praised Prime Minister Modi for his leadership in kick starting the economic recovery through multiple stimulus packages, Shah praised the AIADMK and chief minister K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvam for providing good governance to the state and for having managed the Covid situation in an exemplary manner.
But do the two parties have any alternative other than sticking with each other for electoral benefit? And will this bonhomie continue when the BJP starts flexing its muscle during the negotiations for seat sharing?
The BJP has negligible support in Tamil Nadu and had lost on all 5 seats it had contested in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019. In the 2016 state elections, the party had contested on all 234 assembly seats and had not won a single one. Its vote share was a pitiable 2.86 percent. But this time, Amit Shah has advised the state unit to focus on 50 constituencies where the party can make a difference. This obviously means that the party is likely to pitch for 50 or more seats from where it can contest in the ensuing elections. After accounting for another 50 seats for other smaller parties in the alliance, it will leave just 134 for the AIADMK and it is unlikely to agree to such an arrangement. Fireworks will be on display when the parties start negotiating for seats, unless the BJP can convince the AIADMK to focus on and win again the 136 seats it had won in 2016.
On the other hand, the AIADMK also does not have too many options. Several corruption cases against the rival DMK have been set aside by the courts and it is a different party under M K Stalin. The DMK has won back the trust of the people and this was evident in the manner the UPA swept the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 with the DMK winning all 20 seats it contested. It also led in 138 assembly segments (while the AIADMK was ahead in just 12). The AIADMK has no option but to tag along with the BJP in the NDA if it wants to take on the DMK-led UPA. Alone, despite its loud claims of good governance, it will face a complete wipeout. For, although the BJP does not much support in the state, it will bring in resources and firepower for campaigning (with PM Modi and other BJP stalwarts rooting for AIADMK candidates) which will boost its chances of retaining power.
