Whatever The Result, It Is Going To Be A Vote Against Nitish Kumar
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2020-11-10 08:31:26
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
As the counting of votes begin in Bihar, one thing is absolutely clear from the pre-poll and post-poll surveys and the exit polls - this is going to be an anti-incumbency vote and it is primarily directed against Nitish Kumar. There is discontent and a seething anger against Kumar which was visible to most observers in the run up to the elections. But people were wondering whether the opposition would be able to up the ante and convert it into votes. It seems that the young Tejashwi Yadav has managed to do that. He has managed to convince the voters that he will provide a fresh government that will do away with the corrupt legacy of Lalu Yadav and the inaction of Nitish Kumar in the last five years.
It seems that the BJP miscalculated grossly in continuing the alliance with the JD(U). The late Ram Bilas Paswan and his son Chirag, although they have been marginalized in Bihar politics, saw the writing on the wall and left the alliance in Bihar. Exit polls indicate that the BJP is likely to double its seats while the JD(U) is likely to get half of what it holds in the outgoing assembly. If the BJP had not allied with JD(U) this time, it is likely that it could have got the majority for the simple reason that backward caste votes would have been divided between the RJD and the JD(U) in multi-cornered fights.
The NDA can still win as exit polls and surveys have got it horrendously wrong in the past. But anyone who traveled across Bihar between June and October knows that Nitish Kumar's government was not favoured to win another term. Even if the NDA manages to win, it will be with the thinnest of margins and the BJP will get more seats than the JD(U), giving it an upper hand. Even in that case, it will be a clear vote against Nitish Kumar. It remains to be seen whether the NDA wins and whether the BJP gets more seats than the JD(U) and in that event, whether the BJP allows Nitish Kumar to remain the chief minister.
