A Hung Assembly In West Bengal?
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-03-24 06:24:08
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
The latest opinion poll conducted by ABP News-CNX has predicted a hung assembly for West Bengal. According to the results of the said polls, the TMC is likely to get between 136 and 146 seats while the BJP is likely to get between 130 and 140 seats. These figures show that in one month (when the last poll results had come out), the BJP has gained massively where seats are concerned.
But the biggest surprise is in the vote share figures. Both the TMC and the BJP are likely to lose vote share from what they had received in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. While there is likely to be a swing away from the TMC by as much as 3.21 percent, the BJP is also likely to lose 2.50 percent of vote share. Interestingly, the Left-Congress-ISF combine is set to gain 3.31 percent while others are likely to gain 2.40 percent of vote share.
What does this signify? In the main, it signifies that the Muslims are unlikely to vote en masse for the TMC like in previous years. The formation of the Indian Secular Front by Abbas Siddiqui of the revered Furfura Sharif mazar and the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM will take Muslim votes away from Mamata Banerjee's party. It also signifies that despite BJP's claims, the Hindu vote has not consolidated enough in its favour to propel the party to power.
The newspaper Mint has shared a report from the field that talks about massive anti-incumbency wave against the TMC (especially in areas where the Amphan cyclone had played havoc and there was huge corruption in relief measures) due mainly to corruption charges. Hence, all accounts point to the fact that the TMC is on shaky ground this time. But women voters have backed the TMC in successive elections and their votes are likely to play an important role this time too.
The biggest problem in West Bengal is that there is complete political polarization and in case of a hung assembly, it will be extremely difficult to form the government. It will be interesting to watch how the parties keep their flock together as a hung assembly will provide enough incentive for either recent TMC turncoats to return to the parent party or for fresh desertions from the TMC to the BJP. Once again, cash will be king and aaya rama gaya rams will be much in demand.
