Bihar: Hung Assembly Or Win For Tejashwi Yadav?
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2020-11-07 21:54:14
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
Will another state go out of the NDA grasp? Exit polls are predicting that it will be a hung assembly in Bihar with the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) getting more seats than the Nitish Kumar-led NDA. The poll of exit polls shows that the NDA might just walk away as the winner with the thinnest of margins (115 to 108 for MGB, 8 for the LJP which might once again join the NDA and 12 for others). If LJP returns to the fold, the NDA will then have 123 seats, just one more than the required majority. But scenario that promises to build up as per the exit polls hints at a hung assembly and a period of uncertainty and, of course, horse trading.
Of the three exit polls that have published their findings till the time this article was written, the Dainik Bhaskar poll gives the NDA 120-127 seats, the MGB 71-81, LJP 12-23 and others 19-27. Times Now-C-Voter gives the NDA 116, the MGB 120, the LJP 1 and others 6 and lastly, Republic TV-Jann Ki Baat gives the NDA 91-119, the MGB 116-138, the LJP5-8 and others 3-6. It can be seen from these figures that although all three polls have widely different readings, most of them point to a hung assembly.
There are various scenarios that can emerge in case of a hung assembly. If the MGB is ahead and if others get enough seats to propel it to power, Tejashwi Yadav will have the redoubtable Lalu Yadav (he is being released on November 10, a day before the results are announced) to guide him to bring these others in his fold. Since LJP is unlikely to join the MGB, others are its only hope.
But if the NDA is ahead or even just slightly behind, it has the option of cajoling the LJP to return to the fold and then negotiating with the others if the numbers do not add up. The LJP will obviously demand that Nitish be dropped as chief minister, but that will depend on the numbers. If the BJP gets much more than the JD(U), despite the pre-poll assurances to Nitish, it will negotiate with him to step down in the larger interest of the alliance. Whether the power-hungry Nitish agrees or not is another matter, but the option is there.
The exit polls also confirm that there was huge anti-incumbency against the Nitish government for his acts of omission and commission, mainly in handling the Covid situation, the flood situation and the migrants' crisis. It also shows that women voters, who supported Nitish in large numbers for his prohibition policy, have deserted him this time. Finally, Bihar has also confirmed what started in Rajasthan (against the Rani, Vasundhara Raje) with the slogan "Modi tujhse bair nahin, (local leader) teri khair nahin". There it was Rani, here it was Nitish. Just a little more than a year after the people of Bihar gave the NDA 39 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, they seem to have voted against the NDA for local reasons. It also proves, once again, that while the so-called "Modi magic" works in general elections, it is not enough to bag the states.
PS - At the time of the publication of this article, more exit polls have come in and the new equation shows that Tejashwi Yadav has managed to dislodge Nitish Kumar. If that happens, then all calculations will go in the dustbin. Bihar will have a young leader and Tejashwi will give the best homecoming gift to his father Lalu Yadav. The BJP might rue tha fact that despite objections from the local unit, it went ahead with the alliance with Nitish Kumar. As for Nitish Kumar, the onions that were thrown at him will hound him in his dreams.
