BJP Will Gain If The Regional Parties Rubbish The Congress
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-10-31 16:00:44
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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
When the political situation in the country demands that the opposition parties, who are not individually able to take on the BJP across India, forge strategic alliances, a huge difference of opinion is being seen among them. The main issue is how to accommodate the Congress when forming these alliances.
The Trinamool Congress (TMC), after its resounding win in West Bengal, has become increasingly critical of the Congress. According to party chief Mamata Banerjee, Prime Minister Modi and the BJP have been able to get top billing only because the Congress has allowed them to do so by completely failing to put up a fight. In the recent past, she had also made it clear that she will not have any truck with the Congress. The TMC has also admitted senior Congress leaders from across India to its fold. Obviously, the party is trying to spread its wings (with Goa and Tripura being the first two targets) and despite Banerjee saying that the question of leadership of the opposition alliance will be settled at an appropriate time, the TMC has decided that Mamata Banerjee is best qualified to lead such an alliance, if it happens.
Senior RJD leader Lalu Prasad also said that his party cannot give seats to the Congress on demand only for them to lose those seats. He was referring to nominations for several seats where bypolls in Bihar were held recently. With the RJD, under Tejasvi Yadav, putting up a stellar show in the last elections in Bihar and almost snatching power from the JD(U)-BJP combine, the Congress has become a headache for the party as its vote share does not justify allocating it the number of seats it demands. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has never treated the Congress as an ally and is making a strong effort to dislodge the party's government in Punjab.
But the Shiv Sena, running the government in Maharashtra in alliance with the Congress, believes that Congress must to be included in any all-India alliance to take on the BJP. Sena leader Sanjay Rout recently said that no government can be formed at the Centre without including the Congress. In fact, he predicted that an coalition government with the Congress as the major partner will form the government in 2024.
There is no doubt that the Congress is, at present, the only party that can hope to take on the BJP in several big states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat and Karnataka. No other party has the reach and resources that the Congress possesses on an all-India basis. But those calculations fade away when two things are considered. The Congress has little or no support in the two biggest states of UP and Bihar and consequently, has been able to win less than 100 Lok Sabha seats in the last two Lok Sabha elections. Some of the regional parties like the TMC and the AIDMK came very close to the Congress in 2014 from a single state. Hence, many regional parties have now started treating the Congress like a hindrance and see no point in allying with it. The second point is that the party has not been able set its house in order. Both at national and state levels, dissidence is growing and the high command is not getting a grip. Then, in Rahul Gandhi they have a leader who does not inspire confidence, despite trying hard. The time when the Congress leader was considered the natural choice to lead the opposition alliance is gone. With strong leaders in regional parties who have held their own against the BJP making their presence felt, it is going to be difficult for the Congress to forge alliances if it insists on making Rahul Gandhi the face of such an alliance.
But one things is sure though - although Mamata Banerjee says that the Congress is responsible for the rise and continued dominance of the BJP and PM Modi, if the opposition is not able to forge an alliance in 2024 and if the Congress divides the opposition votes in several states, despite its diminishing vote share it will make things easy for the BJP in 2024. Then, of course, it would be the regional parties who will be responsible for perpetuating BJP rule.
