November 21, 2024

CVoter-ABP Poll: Huge Gains For AAP But Hung Assembly Projected In Punjab

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-11-13 15:16:23

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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

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The CVoter-ABP opinion poll shows what not many have gauged from the public mood in Punjab - that the hard work of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), despite not having any prominent leader in the state, has finally started paying dividends and it has caught up (in fact, overtaken) with the Congress in the state to fill the vacuum caused by the loss of support for the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). All analysts knew that there was support for AAP in Punjab but the extent disclosed by the poll is likely to surprise many.

AAP is projected to win 51 seats with a vote share of 36.5% while the Congress is expected to win 46 seats with a 35% vote share. SAD will be way behind with just 20 seats and 20.5% share of votes. These projections show that Punjab is headed for a hung assembly as the winner needs 59 to form the government. If these projections prove to be true, it will be near impossible to break the impasse as neither the Congress nor the AAP will ally with SAD. It might then boil down to horse trading.

But the way things are moving, these projections might change in the days to come. The Congress has already suffered immense loss of credibility due to the continuing infighting in the party. With Amarinder Singh leaving to form his own party, there is bound to be loss for the Congress. Further, with the party not declaring its face and with Sidhu acting as the de facto chief minister, the public is confused. The AAP is also battling revolts and defections in the state unit. The situation is fluid as of now but one thing is clear - it will be either AAP or Congress that will form the government. All depends on which party is able to run a better campaign in the final push.