oppn parties Does The Incumbent Suffer When There Is Low Voter Turnout?

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  • Neha Bora was subsequently released and Dipke is to appear before a magistrate today at noon
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  • The Reserve Bank of India is considering further monetary tightening to counter capital outflows and increase the cost of betting against the rupee, according to bankers and analysts cited by Reuters. The measures follow recent rate increases and steps to drain liquidity as pressure on the currency and inflation concerns persist
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  • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India's trade imbalance with China was growing sharply and attributed the problem partly to restrictions on Indian goods and services entering the Chinese market. China subsequently said it was ready to work with India to address mutual economic and trade concerns; India's trade deficit with China reached $69 billion in the first half of FY2026–27, up 27% year-on-year
  • Indian equity benchmarks extended their recovery on Friday, with the Sensex rising 413.66 points to close at 74,729.27 and the Nifty 50 gaining 148.80 points to settle at 23,146.15. Information technology shares, including Tech Mahindra, Infosys and TCS, helped lift the indices
  • India defeated Zimbabwe by four wickets in the opening women's T20 International in Raipur, taking a 1–0 lead in the three-match series. Deepti Sharma and Niki Prasad combined in an 82-run stand after India's top order collapsed, helping the hosts chase down Zimbabwe's total of 114 for five
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  • The Supreme Court issued notices to the Election Commission of India, Delhi Police and opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, in separate petitions concerning electoral-roll revision and protests held in Delhi on October 10–12. The court also directed the preservation of CCTV footage linked to allegations of police excesses
  • The Supreme Court ruled that a person converting from Hinduism to Islam cannot automatically claim backward-class reservation benefits in the new religious community solely on the basis of their previous caste status. The judgment upheld the Madras High Court's decision striking down a 2024 Tamil Nadu government order that permitted such certification for specified communities
  • The Election Commission of India ordered a Special Summary Revision of electoral rolls in 14 states and three Union Territories, using January 1, 2027, as the qualifying date for voter eligibility. The draft rolls are scheduled for publication on November 12, claims and objections will be accepted until December 11, and the final rolls are due on January 4, 2027
Delhi HC refuses to ban CJP's Tiranga rally at Central Park in Connaught Place today /////// Police says will control and regulate it /////// NDMC closes the park for the public on Friday and Saturday
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Does The Incumbent Suffer When There Is Low Voter Turnout?

By Linus Garg
First publised on 2024-05-14 07:31:30

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.

After the 4th phase of voting in the 2024 general elections on Monday 13th May, concerns over low voter turnout have started causing jitters across the political spectrum. Voting has been completed for 381 Lok Sabha seats till now. The turnout was 66.14% (102 seats) in phase 1, 66.71% (89 seats) in phase 2, 65.68% (94 seats) in phase 3 and 67.25% (96 seats) in phase 4. All these phases showed lower turnout than in 2019. But the major cause may not have been voter apathy as the heat wave sweeping India was also a big factor in people choosing not to vote.

Historically, the incumbent is generally on the back foot when there is low voter turnout. But this is tempered by the fact that within the low turnout, it depends on who managed to mobilize loyal voter base to visit the booths and cast their votes. If the BJP has managed to mobilize its voter base then it need not worry. But if its voters have stayed away and those of the opposition have voted in large numbers, then it has a problem at hand. The talk of 400-paar have all but vanished and the BJP is scrambling to mobilize voters in the remaining phases.

In UP and Bihar, the two states that together send 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha and where the BJP, is hoping to beat its 2019 tally, the voter turnout has not even touched 60%, but that is par for the course as these two states have never shown a high voter turnout due to many reasons, not the least being the absence of many voters who migrate to other states for work and do not return to vote. Hence, if the BJP is successful in increasing its tally in UP and Bihar, it might yet return with a two-thirds majority as it is hoping.

In the last opinion poll published before the elections in April by ABP News-CVoter, it was predicted that the NDA will get 46.6% vote share and 373 seats while the INDI alliance will get 39.8% vote share and 115 seats with 13.6% votes and 15 seats going to others. This prediction depends on which camp has mobilized its voter base better. With both camps exuding confidence (mainly for public consumption), it remains to be seen what, first the exit polls on June 1, and then the actual results on June 4 have in store for them. 

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