July 17, 2026

Does The Incumbent Suffer When There Is Low Voter Turnout?

By Linus Garg
First publised on 2024-05-14 07:31:30

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Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.

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After the 4^th phase of voting in the 2024 general elections on Monday 13^th May, concerns over low voter turnout have started causing jitters across the political spectrum. Voting has been completed for 381 Lok Sabha seats till now. The turnout was 66.14% (102 seats) in phase 1, 66.71% (89 seats) in phase 2, 65.68% (94 seats) in phase 3 and 67.25% (96 seats) in phase 4. All these phases showed lower turnout than in 2019. But the major cause may not have been voter apathy as the heat wave sweeping India was also a big factor in people choosing not to vote.

Historically, the incumbent is generally on the back foot when there is low voter turnout. But this is tempered by the fact that within the low turnout, it depends on who managed to mobilize loyal voter base to visit the booths and cast their votes. If the BJP has managed to mobilize its voter base then it need not worry. But if its voters have stayed away and those of the opposition have voted in large numbers, then it has a problem at hand. The talk of 400-paar have all but vanished and the BJP is scrambling to mobilize voters in the remaining phases.

In UP and Bihar, the two states that together send 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha and where the BJP, is hoping to beat its 2019 tally, the voter turnout has not even touched 60%, but that is par for the course as these two states have never shown a high voter turnout due to many reasons, not the least being the absence of many voters who migrate to other states for work and do not return to vote. Hence, if the BJP is successful in increasing its tally in UP and Bihar, it might yet return with a two-thirds majority as it is hoping.

In the last opinion poll published before the elections in April by ABP News-CVoter, it was predicted that the NDA will get 46.6% vote share and 373 seats while the INDI alliance will get 39.8% vote share and 115 seats with 13.6% votes and 15 seats going to others. This prediction depends on which camp has mobilized its voter base better. With both camps exuding confidence (mainly for public consumption), it remains to be seen what, first the exit polls on June 1, and then the actual results on June 4 have in store for them.