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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2025-04-11 14:52:17

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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

In what appears to be a strategic win for both sides, the AIADMK and the BJP have officially announced their decision to contest the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections as allies. This move marks AIADMK's return to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after an 18-month-long break. The party had exited the alliance in September 2023, citing objectionable remarks made by then BJP state president K. Annamalai about former AIADMK leaders.

While Union Home Minister Amit Shah maintained that AIADMK had not made any demands for its return to the NDA, the timing of key leadership changes within the BJP tells a different story. On the same day the alliance was announced, Annamalai was replaced by Nainar Nagendran - a former AIADMK leader - as the state BJP chief, raising eyebrows and suggesting behind-the-scenes negotiations.

From AIADMK's standpoint, the alliance is a pragmatic move. The party suffered a major setback in the last state elections, managing to win only 66 seats - a loss of 70 seats - garnering 39.29% of the popular vote, which marked a 7.59% drop. In contrast, the DMK surged ahead with 133 seats and 45.70% of the vote share, capitalizing on issues tied to Tamil identity, language politics, and education policies to gain ground.

Since then, AIADMK has struggled with internal rifts, while the DMK has maintained a strong presence by tapping into local sentiment. The Sanatan Dharma controversy also played to the DMK's advantage, resonating with specific voter bases. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections further highlighted AIADMK's dwindling support - it failed to win a single seat and saw its vote share fall to 23.05%. The BJP, however, made a surprising leap, securing 18.28% of the popular vote in the state, despite having little grassroots presence.

For the BJP, which has long sought a foothold in Tamil Nadu, this alliance could be a calculated step forward. With AIADMK's extensive network and the potential inclusion of regional allies with localized influence, the NDA may be able to mount a serious challenge to the ruling DMK in 2026.

However, the road ahead won't be easy. Ground reports suggest that the DMK isn't facing strong anti-incumbency - a crucial factor in Tamil Nadu's electoral dynamics. Whether this alliance can generate enough momentum to topple the DMK remains to be seen.

By forging this partnership well in advance, the BJP and AIADMK have given themselves time to craft a comprehensive campaign. The early announcement offers an opportunity to mend fences, coordinate efforts, and appeal to a broader electorate.

Ultimately, the success of this renewed alliance will depend on its ability to overcome past differences and present a united, compelling alternative to Tamil Nadu's voters. The countdown to 2026 has begun, but the final verdict, as always, lies in the hands of the people.