April 18, 2026

Exit Polls Are Not Good News For The BJP

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-12-06 06:18:11

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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack

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Apart from Gujarat, the exit polls are not good news for BJP. The worst is the MCD exit poll which clearly shows that after 15 years of ruling the corporation in the capital and after merger and reorganization of districts, the BJP is going to end up on the losing side. In Himachal Pradesh too, the fight is neck-to-neck and despite employing heavy campaign artillery in the form of all big leaders, the BJP may just about beat anti-incumbency and the propensity of the Himachal people of not voting back the incumbent to power - or it may not and the Congress might just pip it to the post. But in Gujarat, the BJP is likely to return to power with its best ever performance if the highest end of the exit poll calculations come true.

Although exit polls have a mixed record in India and get it horrendously wrong many times, it is clear that the BJP is not going to win the MCD. The people of Delhi seem to have overwhelmingly placed their trust in AAP given the woeful state of civic services in the capital. This will be a big win for AAP which will now have full control (apart from police services) in the NCR region. AAP campaigned hard to show the inefficiency of the BJP-ruled municipal corporation (the piling up of garbage at many places in Delhi being the hardest hitting point) and highlighted its record in providing efficient services to sway the people.

In Himachal Pradesh, it is clear that anti-incumbency is high and the people are divided. Both the parties are neck-to-neck in both seats and vote share. The Congress is going to perform exceedingly well as per the exit polls and might even form the government, if a few of the polls are to be believed. That would be a disaster for the BJP for although the state is small, the BJP had campaigned hard and all senior leaders addressed many rallies in the state. For AAP though, Himachal is a failed campaign as it is not likely to bag any seats nor is it likely to get any significant vote share.

It is Gujarat where the BJP will shine, according to the exit polls. It is expected to bag anywhere between 125 to 161 seats in the state. It is also Gujarat where the AAP will make significant gain in terms of vote share although it not likely to bag many seats this time. The Congress is likely to lose out both on seats and vote share. While the BJP will gloat over the fact that this is going to be its best ever performance in the state, the AAP will try to consolidate on its good showing and hope to emerge as the main opposition party in the state and give a tougher fight to the BJP in 2027.