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India Will Be Most Populous Nation In The World In 2023 But There Is No Need To Be Alarmed

By Our Editorial Team
First publised on 2022-07-12 09:04:42

About the Author

Sunil Garodia The India Commentary view

India was expected to be the most populous country in the world by 202. But the Population Division of the United Nations (UNPD) has now said that India will overtake China to become so next year, four years earlier than expected. Ordinarily, this should have sent alarm bells ringing and a rush to devise policies for population control. But with all indicators like fertility rates and population growth showing that population in India is likely to plateau and start declining in the near future, there is no need to panic.

Unlike China, India has, barring the Emergency when there was forced sterilization for some time, always used  persuasion and education as the means to control population. It has been extremely successful in bringing the sustained total fertility rate from 6 in 1951 to 2 now (as per the National Family Health Survey-5) which is less than the 2.1 that the UNPD prescribes for attaining population stability. While China had forced the one-child policy on its people and was successful in controlling growth of population, the ill-effects - an ageing population and a skewed gender ratio, among others - of the policy has now forced it to abandon it. As India has reached the replacement level fertility rate, there is no need for special coercive policies to control the growth of population. Persuasion and education, coupled with rising aspirations which induces couples to have only as many children as they can bring up well, will work fine.

Instead, the need for the government is to turn this perceived liability into an asset. India needs to provide the best of healthcare, nutrition and education facilities for its burgeoning population and skill them to make them productive so that they can rise up the value-generation curve. It needs to rapidly develop the country so that these educated and skilled people get jobs and are productive. India is blessed with a young population. It only needs to make them partners in progress by allowing them to be healthy, educated and skilled in a manner in which they can contribute to building the nation.

Picture courtesy: downtoearth.org.in (caption ours)

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