oppn parties Is Uttar Pradesh Swinging Back The BJP Way?

News Snippets

  • Coal exploration plan worth Rs 2980cr cleared by Union cabinet
  • Government ploughs in Rs 89000cr in BSNL for 4G, 5G spectrum operations
  • Stocks gain on Wednesday: Sensex adds 350 points to 63142 and Nifty 127 points to 18726
  • Wresters agitation: Sports minister assures action by June 15, wrestlers put off agitation till then
  • WTC Final: India lose the plot after putting Australia to bat as Steve Smith stands like a rock and Travis Head counter attacks to put Australia (327 for 3) in command on the first day
  • Wrestlers agitation: Bajrang Punia. Sakshi Mallik and Vinesh Phogat rejoin work in Railways, BKU pulls back but wrestlers say agitation will go on
  • UP bahubali-turned-politician gets life in 32-year-old murder case
  • India-US seal defence cooperation roadmap as Defence minister Rajnath Singh meets US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin
  • CBI probe in the train mishap will look at error in interlocking system and probe the sabotage angle
  • Violence continues in Manipur as three persons were killed after a mob attacked an ambulance in Imphal West district
  • Karnataka cabinet is likely to discuss cow slaugther law in its next meeting
  • Rahul Gandhi woos diaspora in the US, tries to show the fight in India as between those who believe in Mahatma Gandhi and those in Nathuram Godse
  • In preparation of a shutdown, MTNL moving operations to BSNL
  • Services sector sustains growth although Services PMI slips from 62 in April to 61.2 in May
  • Stocks gain handsomely on Monday: Sensex rises 240 points to 62787 and Nifty 59 points to 18593
WTC Final: Australia take firm grip on Day1 - Travis Head (146 batting) and Steve Smith (95 batting) take them to 327 for 3 as Indian bowling falters
oppn parties
Is Uttar Pradesh Swinging Back The BJP Way?

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2019-04-08 21:28:18

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
The latest Times Now-VMR survey shows startling results in Uttar Pradesh, the state that is mainly going to decide whether Prime Minister Modi gets a second term. The results are not going to be music to the ears of the opposition parties, especially Mayawati, charged as she is to become the PM. From a low of 36 seats a few weeks ago, the BJP has gone up to 50 seats. It shows that the party has been able to minimize its losses and is now in a very comfortable position, despite the supposed consolidation of Dalit-OBC-Muslim (DOM) votes.

tableup Why is this happening? The biggest reason is that the Congress is dividing the opposition votes. The SP-BSP-RJD alliance had ignored the Congress as according to them it is a spent force in the state. But as the survey shows, the vote share of the party has increased to 11% while that of the alliance has dipped to 37.7%. Together, they could have trumped the BJP's vote share of 45%. But that was not to be after Mayawati trashed the Congress and closed the doors permanently. The other reasons are the breaking away of the Nishad Party from the alliance that will have a major impact in 4/5 seats in eastern UP and the discontent among the workers of SP and BSP regarding working for the other party in some places.

The trend shows that the more the alliance appeals to the Muslims and the Dalits not to split the votes, the more consolidation of upper caste Hindu votes will take place without the guarantee that DOM votes will not split. In fact, the very fact that the Congress has upped its vote share shows that the DOM votes are splitting in a big way. It also shows that complete transfer of votes between SP and BSP is only a theoretical assumption and does not happen on the ground.

Further, despite the opposition hue and cry that the Prime Minister is harping on the ultra-nationalism and the security angle just to deflect attention from the failure of his government, it seems that the strategy is paying rich dividends for the BJP. The people seemed to have liked his declaration of saaf niyat and majboot sarkar and are increasingly worried about handing over the reins of the nation to a lot of indecisive leaders who cannot even decide on who will be prime minister if they manage to win.

If BJP manages to get 50 or more seats in UP, there are reasons to believe that the NDA will return with a very comfortable majority. The opposition had its best chance in the state. There was simmering discontent against Yogi AdityanathÂ’s government and the hardcore Hindutva elements were dissatisfied because the Ram Mandir was not built. But it seems to have thrown away the chance by dividing opposition votes by keeping the Congress out of the alliance. Their caste arithmetic has gone awry. That is now more or less confirmed by the latest survey.

pic courtesy: both the lead and the body pictures sourced from images tweeted by @timesnow