oppn parties Is Uttar Pradesh Swinging Back The BJP Way?

News Snippets

  • 84 NDRF teams have been despatched to 23 states to tackle the flood situation
  • Three persons lynched in Bihar after being accused of cattle theft
  • Delhi police seize a consignment of 1500 kgs of heroin and busts a cartel of Afghanistan-Pakistan narcotics dealers with links to the Taliban
  • Supreme Court gives 9 more months to complete the Babri Masjid demolition case trial
  • Priyanka Gandhi not allowed to meet the families of the dead in the Sonabhadra firing, arrested
  • ICC inducts Sachin Tendulkar in [email protected]@@s Hall of Fame
  • Stock markets bleed for the second day. Sensex crashes 560 points
  • S Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs, says Pakistan should release and repatriate Kulbhushan Jadhav immediately
  • Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala asks the Speaker to hold the trust vote latest by 1.30 pm today
  • The Government sends a list of 24 questions to mobile app company that runs video app TikTok seeking answers for anti-national and obscene content carried on the platform
  • Sarvana Bhawan founder P Rajagopal, serving a life term for murder, dies in a Chennai hospital
  • SC allows time till July 31 to the Ayodhya mediation panel
  • IT department attaches "benami" plot worth Rs 400cr in Noida. The plot allegedly belongs to BSP leader [email protected]@@s brother and his wife
  • Dawood [email protected]@@s nephew, Md. Rizwan Iqbal, was arrested from Mumbai airport as he was waiting to board a flight to Dubai
  • Trouble brews in Bihar JD(U)-BJP alliance as Bihar police asks special branch officers to keep tabs on RSS activities
Even after indicating that the trust vote will be held today (he said he cannot delay as he had to face the world), the Karnataka Speaker adjourns the assembly until Monday. Voting is likely to take place on Monday
oppn parties
Is Uttar Pradesh Swinging Back The BJP Way?

By Sunil Garodia

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Writes for a number of publications.
The latest Times Now-VMR survey shows startling results in Uttar Pradesh, the state that is mainly going to decide whether Prime Minister Modi gets a second term. The results are not going to be music to the ears of the opposition parties, especially Mayawati, charged as she is to become the PM. From a low of 36 seats a few weeks ago, the BJP has gone up to 50 seats. It shows that the party has been able to minimize its losses and is now in a very comfortable position, despite the supposed consolidation of Dalit-OBC-Muslim (DOM) votes.

tableup Why is this happening? The biggest reason is that the Congress is dividing the opposition votes. The SP-BSP-RJD alliance had ignored the Congress as according to them it is a spent force in the state. But as the survey shows, the vote share of the party has increased to 11% while that of the alliance has dipped to 37.7%. Together, they could have trumped the BJP's vote share of 45%. But that was not to be after Mayawati trashed the Congress and closed the doors permanently. The other reasons are the breaking away of the Nishad Party from the alliance that will have a major impact in 4/5 seats in eastern UP and the discontent among the workers of SP and BSP regarding working for the other party in some places.

The trend shows that the more the alliance appeals to the Muslims and the Dalits not to split the votes, the more consolidation of upper caste Hindu votes will take place without the guarantee that DOM votes will not split. In fact, the very fact that the Congress has upped its vote share shows that the DOM votes are splitting in a big way. It also shows that complete transfer of votes between SP and BSP is only a theoretical assumption and does not happen on the ground.

Further, despite the opposition hue and cry that the Prime Minister is harping on the ultra-nationalism and the security angle just to deflect attention from the failure of his government, it seems that the strategy is paying rich dividends for the BJP. The people seemed to have liked his declaration of saaf niyat and majboot sarkar and are increasingly worried about handing over the reins of the nation to a lot of indecisive leaders who cannot even decide on who will be prime minister if they manage to win.

If BJP manages to get 50 or more seats in UP, there are reasons to believe that the NDA will return with a very comfortable majority. The opposition had its best chance in the state. There was simmering discontent against Yogi AdityanathÂ’s government and the hardcore Hindutva elements were dissatisfied because the Ram Mandir was not built. But it seems to have thrown away the chance by dividing opposition votes by keeping the Congress out of the alliance. Their caste arithmetic has gone awry. That is now more or less confirmed by the latest survey.

pic courtesy: both the lead and the body pictures sourced from images tweeted by @timesnow