Record Turnout In First Phase In Bengal Offers No Clear Conclusion Yet
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2026-04-23 14:49:14
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
View all posts by this Author
Bengal (first phase) recorded massive, near-record turnout in the assembly election polls today. The usual wisdom says that higher than normal turnout goes against the incumbent. So is the TMC on its way out in the state?
But wait. The 'usual wisdom' comes with riders, most of which have repeatedly humiliated analysts who applied the national turnout-incumbency template without adjustment, especially in Bengal. For example, in the 2021 assembly elections, there was a surge in the turnout but the incumbent TMC returned with a stronger majority.
So, when PM Modi looks at the nearly 92% turnout figure in Bengal's first phase and claims that it is an "overwhelming mandate for change" he might be jumping the gun. There are several factors that need to be factored in before reaching any conclusion. Of course, after three terms in office, the TMC is facing anti-incumbency. But the SIR controversy and TMC's clever change of narrative might just have blunted that. Further, it is a well-known fact that incumbent popularity is a moderating factor - a genuinely popular incumbent like Mamata Banerjee may not face this penalty. But the same cannot be said about her party and other leaders.
The turnout surge in Bengal tells you something significant is happening, but it does not reliably tell you who benefits. You need to know where the surge is, who controls those booths, and what the polarisation context is before drawing any conclusion.
