The War In Ukraine: A Huge Test For Indian Foreign Policy
The India Commentary view
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By Our Editorial Team
First publised on 2022-02-24 16:57:13
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The India Commentary view
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Disregarding overwhelming global opinion, Russia has finally invaded Ukraine. Almost all nations had asked both the countries to resolve their dispute through dialogue and negotiations. While Russian President Vladimir Putin first gave the impression that the build up at the border was just a military drill and then sought to convey the impression that the troops were being sent back to the barracks, he resorted to military action in the end after getting approval from the Federation Council. US President Joe Biden had consistently maintained that Russia will take military action and he was absolutely right in his assessment.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will test India's foreign policy to the fullest. The balancing act which India is trying to maintain in its relations with Russia and the US is possible only in times of peace. India was able to escape attracting US sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) when it purchased S-400 Triumf missile system from Russia through persuasive negotiations. But no such persuasion will work with the US now that Russia is in war mode. The US will impose strict sanctions on Russia and will also put pressure on India to make its stand clear. Although PM Modi held a high-level meeting with Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh after the invasion and will speak to President Putin, it is unlikely that India will go against Russia to the extent of openly criticizing the invasion. But if India remains neutral its relations with Ukraine will also suffer as Ukraine's envoy to India, Igor Polikha, has said his country is "deeply dissatisfied" with India's stand.
On the other hand, a threatening axis is developing between Russia, China and Pakistan. While the Xi-Putin summit at the Winter Olympics in Beijing despite a diplomatic boycott of the Games by many countries, including India, was a huge statement by Russia, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's visit to Russia even as Russian planes are bombing targets in Ukraine and its troops have entered the neighbouring country confirmed that while Russia and China are coming together to fulfill their expansionist ambitions, Pakistan is trying to get attached to put pressure on the US, do China's bidding and weaken India's relations with Russia. This is a matter of huge concern for India. It will have to reorient its foreign policy in the face of changing global equations.
