oppn parties Will the Mahagathbandhan Break?

News Snippets

  • Trouble brews in Bihar JD(U)-BJP alliance as Bihar police asks special branch officers to keep tabs on RSS activities
  • Trust vote in Karnataka assembly today. With rebel MLAs deciding to stay away after the SC order, the Congress-JD(S) government is likely to fall as it does not have the numbers
  • Amit Shah says the government will identify and deport illegal immigrants from all parts of the country
  • Reports from Pakistan confirm that Hafiz Saeed has been arrested and sent to jail
  • After the SC order, Karnataka Speaker says he will go by the Constitution in deciding on the resignations of the 16 MLAs
  • Rebel MLAs say they will not attend the trust vote on Thursday
  • Supreme Court rules that rebel MLAs cannot be forced to attend the assembly and vote in the floor test
  • Both the Centre and the Assam government have sought re-verification of up to 20% of draft NRC data
  • Pakistan opens its airspace for Indian planes
  • Dilapidated building collapses in Mumbai, killing more than 10 people while many were still trapped
  • Kulbhushan Jadhav case verdict to be delivered today by the ICJ
  • A Vistara flight landed in Lucknow with just 5 to 10 minutes of fuel left in the tank
  • Supreme Court to decide on Karnataka MLAs plea today
  • Karnataka alliance to face floor test on Thursday
  • China says that the next Dalai Lama will be appointed by it
International Court of Justice agrees with India, stays Kulbhushan Jadhav's execution. It asks Pakistan to allow consular access to the accused.
oppn parties
Will the Mahagathbandhan Break?

By Sunil Garodia

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Writes for a number of publications.
Lalu Prasad and family are in deep trouble, both personally and politically. Politically, they are set to lose the perks of office as Nitish Kumar has put them on notice for various corruption charges. Nitish has been emboldened to take this step, despite being the junior partner in the alliance, for two big reasons. First, the BJP has assured him of outside support in case he has to break the alliance with RJD. Second, he wants to preserve his corruption-free image by not being seen as protecting the Lalu clan. If he can carry this out, it will have huge implication for the so-called second front (with the Congress having been decimated, the third front has become passé and the Congress is now part of the second front) and opposition unity.

If RJD is forced to leave the mahagathbandhan in Bihar and if Nitish chooses to take outside support from BJP, the Congress will also leave the alliance. That effectively would mean that Nitish will not be counted as an ally by any of the opposition parties. As it is, Nitish and Mamata do not see eye to eye. Hence, for all practical purposes, JD (U) would become a NDA ally. Nitish must calculate the pros and cons of such a move before seeking BJP support to remain in government.

For the BJP, it would be a win-win situation all the way. Amit Shah is still smarting from the effect of the drubbing at the hands of the mahagathbandhan in Bihar. Although he managed to prove that it was a one-off event by turning the tables in UP, Shah is a man who neither forgets nor forgives. If the alliance in Bihar breaks, Shah would be the happiest man in India. But the BJP will not stand to gain much if it does not join the government, which seems a remote possibility at this moment.

Further, the RJD potential of creating mischief in the state is huge, especially after their good showing during the elections. The party has musclemen and support among the yadavs. Hence, if Nitish chooses to break the alliance, he must be prepared to face major law and order problems in the state. These problems will escalate to unmanageable levels if the Central agencies arrest any member of the Lalu clan.