oppn parties Will the Mahagathbandhan Break?

News Snippets

  • Mediators tell the protestors in Shaheen Bagh that the Supreme Court will listen to them more keenly if they remove the roadblock and move to an alternate site
  • No headway by mediators in the Shaheen Bagh imbroglio. Protestors say adjoining roads are running fine.
  • After China objects to Home Minister Amit Shah's Arunachal visit, India says China has no business to comment on the issue as the state is an integral part of India
  • The OBC "creamy layer" to be changed by including salary as part of the income that will decide the threshold. This will lead to many more getting left out
  • RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat says the word "nationalism" should not be used now as it has acquired negative connotations
  • UP Sunni Central Wakf Board accepts the 5-acre plot given by the government to rebuild the Babri masjid as per the terms of the Supreme Court order
  • Two dalits thrashed and abused in Rajasthan's Nagaur. Police arrest 7 persons
  • Supreme Court rejects curative petition in the Uphaar cinema fire case in Delhi and says there will be no further jail terms for the owners, the Ansal brothers
  • Government data placed in Parliament shows a sharp decline in job creation under its flagship employment generation schemes
  • The government is working to amend the Aadhar Act to make it possible for the Aadhar to be linked with the Voter's ID. Election Commission will simultaneously be empowered to link the two
  • Tapas Pal, former TMC MP, dies of cardiac arrest in Mumbai. He was questioned for his alleged involvement in the Rose Valley scam and gained notoriety for his rape remark in 2014.
  • Bypoll to panchayats in J&K, scheduled for March in eight phases, postponed due to security concerns.
  • Supreme Court says that overhead power transmission lines going through the Desert National Park in Jaisalmer in Rajasthan must go underground to save the Great Indian Bustard and the Lesser Florican
  • Pakistan not placed in FAFT blacklist but kept on the grey list with warning
  • The government is expected to announce duty cuts and other measures to combat business disruption due to coronavirus outbreak in China
Former principal secretary to PM Modi, Nripendra Mishra, appointed to head the temple committee of the Ram Janambhoomi Teertha Kshetra Trust
oppn parties
Will the Mahagathbandhan Break?

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2017-07-12 18:30:37

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Writes for a number of publications.
Lalu Prasad and family are in deep trouble, both personally and politically. Politically, they are set to lose the perks of office as Nitish Kumar has put them on notice for various corruption charges. Nitish has been emboldened to take this step, despite being the junior partner in the alliance, for two big reasons. First, the BJP has assured him of outside support in case he has to break the alliance with RJD. Second, he wants to preserve his corruption-free image by not being seen as protecting the Lalu clan. If he can carry this out, it will have huge implication for the so-called second front (with the Congress having been decimated, the third front has become passé and the Congress is now part of the second front) and opposition unity.

If RJD is forced to leave the mahagathbandhan in Bihar and if Nitish chooses to take outside support from BJP, the Congress will also leave the alliance. That effectively would mean that Nitish will not be counted as an ally by any of the opposition parties. As it is, Nitish and Mamata do not see eye to eye. Hence, for all practical purposes, JD (U) would become a NDA ally. Nitish must calculate the pros and cons of such a move before seeking BJP support to remain in government.

For the BJP, it would be a win-win situation all the way. Amit Shah is still smarting from the effect of the drubbing at the hands of the mahagathbandhan in Bihar. Although he managed to prove that it was a one-off event by turning the tables in UP, Shah is a man who neither forgets nor forgives. If the alliance in Bihar breaks, Shah would be the happiest man in India. But the BJP will not stand to gain much if it does not join the government, which seems a remote possibility at this moment.

Further, the RJD potential of creating mischief in the state is huge, especially after their good showing during the elections. The party has musclemen and support among the yadavs. Hence, if Nitish chooses to break the alliance, he must be prepared to face major law and order problems in the state. These problems will escalate to unmanageable levels if the Central agencies arrest any member of the Lalu clan.