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BJP Dilemma In Assam: Sonowal or Himanta Bisawa Sarma?

By Linus Garg
First publised on 2021-05-02 15:33:00

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.

As expected, the BJP has retained Assam handsomely, but with a reduced margin. That is mainly due to the unprecedented tie-up between the Congress and Badruddin Azmal's  AIUDF. The 2016 elections had shown that the INC had independently got 31 percent vote while the AIUDF 13 percent. In comparison, the BJP had 42 percent. So an alliance between the two was expected to pose problems for the BJP in many seats. In the end, the numbers of seats were not much and the BJP could escape with a loss of just 10 seats from 2016 while for the Congress-AIUDF alliance, it was a combined gain of just 9 seats. Obviously, much more was needed than just an avoidance of three-cornered contests to beat the BJP.

The BJP was banking on the good governance record of its state government. There has been massive improvement in infrastructure in the last five years. The Sonowal government also took all the right steps to keep the Covid-19 situation under control. Although there are charges of corruption against it, but the opposition could not use it to winning effect. The Sarbananda Sonowal-Himanta Biswa Sarma combine had kept things under total control and the upper Assam region has been solidly behind the BJP and has once again contributed decisively to its victory.

But there is a buzz in Guwahati that Sarma wants to be chief minister this time (he has won by over 1 lakh votes from his old constituency Jhalukbari near Guwahati). Although the party has not taken him to Delhi (as a Union minister, which is the best way to remove a rival from a state) mainly because Sarma is the party's main troubleshooter in the North-East and is credited with bringing many of the states under the party's fold, it can no longer ignore his ambitions. If the party now wishes to reward Sarma with the chief minister's chair for the good work he has done over the years, it will have no other option but to make Sonowal a Union minister and move him to Delhi. It remains to be seen what decision the BJP high command takes. 

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