BJP Seems To Have Warded Off Anti-Incumbency In Tripura
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2023-02-28 02:10:59
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
As per the exit polls, BJP seems to have fought off anti-incumbency successfully and is set to retain Tripura comfortably. While one poll gives it two-third majority with 40 seats (in a house of 60), another poll gives it just 26, 5 seats short of majority. But a poll of exit polls places it at 32, which means it is likely to get a simple majority. The polls put the CPM-Congress combine at 15 and the newly-formed Tipra Motha at 12. But there is wide divergence in the polls and that might be a cause of worry for the BJP.
It is clear that while the BJP has been able to retain its vote bank to some extent, has not fallen prey to anti-incumbency (the party had replaced chief minister Biplab Deb with Manik Saha in May last year) and has also successfully managed to tide over internal pulls and pressures, the opposition vote was divided. The good showing by Tipra Motha suggests that if the CPM, the Congress and the Motha had formed an alliance, the BJP could have landed in trouble.
For some months it seemed that factionalism in the BJP would be its undoing. The party had also sensed that Tipra Motha was becoming popular and sent many feelers to them for an alliance. But the deal could not be sealed as the BJP could not agree to the Motha demand for a Greater Tripura. CPM-Congress were also not able to align the Tirpa Motha with them. The Congress is not likely to win any seats. The TMC is also likely to draw a blank.
The Tirpa Motha's gains are mostly at the expense of the Left and the smaller parties. In terms of vote share, the exit polls predict that the BJPs vote share might remain static while the CPM will lose another 8% from 2018 despite talks of resurgence. The biggest gainer will be Tirpa Motha which will open its account with a 20% vote share and prove that it is going to be a serious player from now.
