Congress Reaches The Challenger Deep In Gujarat
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-12-11 13:47:55
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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The Congress has made a huge mistake by not putting up a better fight in Gujarat. It has lost 14.1% vote share and 60 seats (from what it got in 2017) in one of its worst performances in the state. In the process, it has allowed the BJP to increase the vote share difference between the two parties to more than 25% from just 7.7% it had narrowed to in 2017. It has allowed the BJP to breach 9 of its hitherto impregnable forts where it had never lost and is now just confined to pockets in north Gujarat. Also, more importantly, it has allowed the AAP to elbow in as the third political force in the state.
There are many reasons for this complete surrender of sorts. When the Congress put up a spirited fight in 2017 and won 77 seats to the BJPs 99, it had then done enough without actually winning for it to consolidate on the performance and keep the BJP on its toes as a strong and responsible opposition. It had then capitalized on the angst of several sections of the people and had admitted community leaders (Hardik Patel of Patidars, Alpesh Thakor of OBCs and Jignesh Mevani of Dalits) who were at the forefront of the independent agitations in the state. In doing so, it had built up a strong opposition to the BJP and had added to its already loyal vote bank. That resulted in it getting 41.4% vote share.
But immediately thereafter, the party high command lost interest. It was as if the high command had given its all in the fight and wanted no part of a lost cause. No interest was show in keeping warring factions in check and unitedly fighting the BJP. The high command also did not accord importance to the new, but important recruits and gave them no specific roles. The result was that Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor left to join the BJP and several other old timers at all levels also left to join either the BJP or the AAP. The ordinary worker was confused as this time the party did not carry out a campaign that could inspire confidence and allowed the AAP and the BJP to make dents in its vote banks.
Gujarat was one state where, despite the BJP ruling for 27 uninterrupted years, the Congress had a huge and loyal following. Its vote share never dipped below 38% (in assembly elections) even in Narendra Modi's hey days as chief minister of the state. But by following wrong policies and not being able to keep its flock together, the Congress has allowed the BJP to further tighten its electoral grip on the state on the one hand and AAP to enter in a big way (in terms of vote share) as the third political force in the state which had always seen straight fights between the Congress and the BJP on the other. As things stand now, it is likely that AAP will consolidate on its excellent performance in 2027 and that will push the Congress further out of the equation.
