Dwindling Choices Before The Congress
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-12-05 12:21:38
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
Opposition politics in India is undergoing a huge churn with Mamata Banerjee and her party Trinamool Congress (TMC) bidding to overturn the conventional wisdom that by virtue of its age and resources, the Grand Old Party (GoP) of India, the Congress, is the natural choice to lead any opposition alliance against the BJP. Banerjee is working to forge an all-India alliance comprising of regional parties and her party is increasingly portraying her as the only leader capable of heading such an alliance and taking on the BJP under Narendra Modi.
But the Congress is not facing the heat only from the TMC. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), sensing a huge opportunity in Punjab, has also taken to Congress-bashing with renewed vigour. Elsewhere, in the past, allies DMK in Tamil Nadu and the RJD in Bihar have rued giving more seats to the Congress in state alliances. RJD senior Lalu Prasad even said that there is no use allocating more seats to the Congress only for them to lose those seats. In the upcoming elections in UP, both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) do not consider Congress to be a useful alliance partner. Since the Congress has been losing elections and vote share with alarming regularity, regional parties think that it punches much below its weight and are no longer afraid of it dividing opposition votes in three-cornered contests.
The situation for the Congress is turning woefully stark in state after state as a rudderless party that has no clue how to revive itself gropes for answers. It is not as if the Gandhi family is not trying. They tried to rope in poll strategist Prashant Kishor to overhaul the party and make it battle ready to take on the BJP. But perhaps what Kishor suggested was not music to the Gandhis. After that, Kishor has turned a bitter critic and is now supporting the TMC with all his might.
Then, the GoP has to cope with internal differences. Although the G23 members have become less vocal now, their demands have not been met and they are still against the way the party is being run. Then there is Navjot Singh Sidhu. After having had his way in Punjab, the loudmouth stirred controversy again when he said that India should resume trade with Pakistan. Before the BJP could answer, the party own Manish Tiwari (a member of the G23) said that Sidhu should not make such comments and India cannot resume trade with Pakistan until it stops anti-India activities.
The Congress perhaps thinks that it will be the beneficiary of the "there is no alternative" (TINA) factor when it comes to the crunch. It thinks that since it directly fights with the BJP in over 200 Lok Sabha seats, once the people decide to vote the BJP out, it will be the natural beneficiary. Perhaps it also thinks, rightly or wrongly, that given its experience and resources, all other opposition parties must respect its position and accept its leadership. But in doing so, it forgets that under Rahul Gandhi, it has lost successive Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019 and numerous state elections. It also forgets that the image of the party and its plummeting vote share do not give it the heft to command respect as before.
Things have changed and are further changing rapidly in Indian politics. In 2014, the Congress won just 44 Lok Sabha seats. The AIADMK won 37 and the TMC 34. The signs are that Congress is no longer the only alternative for the people. The TINA factor might not work. The opposition parties think that since they do well in their states, an alliance without the Congress can be worked out. Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut has confimed as much in his weekly column in the party mouthpiece Saamna that Mamata Bannerjee is working for an opposition alliance without the Congress. If that happens, the Congress might be left by the wayside and its almost 20 percent national vote share will not amount to much if no regional party is willing to ally with it. Then, instead of direct fights with the BJP in 200 seats, the Congress will be left with only Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhattishgarh and Madhya Pradesh (states where there are no important regional parties) and just 120 such seats. That would not be enough for it to seriously challenge the BJP.
