November 21, 2024

As the exit polls start rolling out, the hopes of the opposition parties are being stubbed out. The poll of polls suggests that the NDA is expected to get around 296 seats, the UPA 126 and others 120. With a few differences here and there, mainly in the figures of Uttar Pradesh, the figures are consistent and it is clear that Narendra Modi is going to get an unprecedented second term in an age when regional parties had started thinking that no government could be formed at the Centre without their support.

The nation’s eyes are fixed on two states – Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. UP because of the mahagathbandhan (MGB) between SP-BSP and RLD and West Bengal because of the tooth and nail, and often ugly, fight between Mamata Banerjee and Narendra Modi. All channels are putting out widely different figures for UP – from 58 to NDA and 20 to MGB by Times Now-VMR to 22 to NDA and 56 to MGB by Nielsen – and this is something very disconcerting. Psephology is trying to come of age in India and some companies have put startlingly accurate figures in the past. But when figures vary so much, people start questioning the methodology. The message, however, is clear – the MGB has managed to consolidate the backward class votes admirably, but not to the full potential. The BJP’s losses are not as much as feared.

As for Bengal, while the figures vary here too, the trend is clear – the BJP has made massive inroads into the TMC citadel. Mamata Banerjee, despite going all out to tell the faithful that Modi was chor and Amit Shah was dhokebaz, has not managed to prevent a breach and the rise in the BJP vote share. This is a matter of concern for her with the assembly elections just two years away. It also explains why there was widespread violence in all seven phases of polls in the state – the TMC tried to do everything possible to prevent the BJP from making inroads in the state while the BJP wanted to do so at any cost. At the lowest end, the BJP is likely to get 11 seats, up 9 from the 2 it got in 2014 while the TMC is likely to get 29, down 5 seats. The Left Front is likely to be wiped out, with the Congress getting the other 2.

The worst loser is the Congress. Despite going all out, even drafting Priyanka Varda as the minder for eastern UP and making her campaign all over the country, the Congress has cut a sorry figure, even in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the states it won in assembly elections last year. The people’s slogan in Rajasthan - Rani teri khair nahin, Modi tujhse bair nahin – meaning that they will show the door to Vasundhara Raje (the rani) but would embrace Modi, has come true. It seems to be similar in other states. The people trusted the Congress to rule the state based on local leaders, but are not ready to trust Rahul Gandhi against Narendra Modi.

This negates the need for the kind of deliberations Chandrababu Naidu is carrying out in Delhi at the moment. Although the exit polls are not the results, they do show the wider trend. With a plus/minus of 5 to 10 seats, the poll of exit polls is likely to be quite close to the mark. It is especially hilarious that Naidu, likely to be reduced to just 4-5 seats by the Jagan Reddy wave in Andhra Pradesh, is trying to play kingmaker. The largest opposition block is going to be the UP MGB, even at the lowest end of the exit poll scale. But even the most hopeful among the opposition leaders will agree that the numbers are against them. They might console themselves by saying that these are not actual results, but in their heart they know that they have again missed the bus.

pic courtesy: times now