oppn parties Exit Polls: UP Confuses Pollsters

News Snippets

  • The government decides to decriminalize more than two-thirds of penal sections in the Companies Act
  • Muslim groups tell the Supreme Court that they want the Babri Masjid to be restored
  • Muslim groups claim that while they were asked questions in court, Hindus were not questioned
  • Postpaid mobile services restored in Jammu & Kashmir from today, but still no internet
  • Abhijit Banerjee, an Indian-American currently a professor at MIT, wins the 2019 Noble prize in economics jointly with two others
  • Industrial output slumps in August as the IIP shrinks by 1.1%
  • Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping watch a cultural show at the Shore Temple in Mamallapuram
  • J&K administration lifts the ban on entry of tourists in the Valley, but it remains doubtful how many will visit without being able to use mobile phones and internet
  • After Sena asks members to support the BJP candidate in Kalyan, 26 party corporators and 300 members resign setting off a crisis
  • The Centre sets up a 12-member committee to suggest systemic changes in the GST structure to improve compliance and collection, prevent misuse and evasion and rationalize rates and slabs
  • In line with the RBI outlook on the Indian economy, rating firm Moody's also downgrades growth forecast from 6.8% to 5.8% this year, saying the economy is experiencing a pronounced slowdown
  • HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh says the financial system in India does not offer foolproof security for misuse of the savings of the common man
  • Shivinder Singh and Malvinder Singh, promoters of Ranbaxy and Fortis, arrested for their role in Religare Finvest scam
  • Supreme Court says marriage can be dissolved if it has broken down irretrievably
  • DA of Central government staff hiked by 5% to 17%
Sourav Ganguly is the new president of BCCI, says conflict of interest is a big concern
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Exit Polls: UP Confuses Pollsters

By Linus Garg

About the Author

Sunil Garodia Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
How has UP voted? The exit polls are not sure. Either the samples have been improperly drawn or the regions have not been equally represented or the interpolations of the statistics are not consistent. But whatever the reason, the wide variations in the results of different pollsters have thrown an element of surprise regarding the final results.

The ABP News-AC Nielsen poll shows that the NDA will get only 22 seats while the mahagathbandhan of SP-BSP-RLD (MGB) will get 56 seats. At the other end of the scale, the Times Now-VMR poll shows that the NDA will get 58 while the MGB will get only 20. In between, the CVoter poll puts the figures at 38 for NDA and 40 for MGB. This has utterly confused the public and put the methodology used by the pollsters into question.

While exit polls sometimes get it horrendously wrong (like they did in Australia recently), if the trend is same for all polls, one can assume that given a difference of +/- 5%, the results would be close to the polls. But in case of UP, the exit polls have put out widely different figures that do not allow one to form a firm opinion.

The MGB and the Congress have said that people are in for a surprise on the 23rd of May. They have sought to base their opinion on the assumption that they have spotted “silent” voters in the state who do not speak much but are disgusted with the policies of NDA and will vote against it. They say that the BJP will be wiped out in the state.

The BJP, on the other hand, is quite upbeat that it will better its 2014 tally. The party thinks that PM Modi’s image and the events subsequent to the Balakot strikes have raised the party’s image among the voters and they are ready to forget the excesses of Yogi Adityanath to give Modi another chance. The party also seriously thinks that the SP votes have not been fully transferred to the BSP candidates in the constituencies where they got the ticket.

Whatever be the results, one thing is sure. Amit Shah’s and Yogi’s boast of bettering the 2014 tally is not going to happen. The BJP is set to lose quite a few seats to the caste combination cobbled up by the MGB. It is also certain that these losses would have multiplied if the Congress had refrained from fielding candidates in all the 80 constituencies of the state.