November 21, 2024

Maldives is witnessing what India had gone through in 1975. In order to save itself, the government there has declared an emergency and assumed control of all organs of democracy. Two Supreme Court judges have been arrested and top opposition leaders, who were ordered to be freed by the Supreme Court, have not been released. There have been huge protests in Male. President Abdulla Yameen has been unrelenting in crushing down all opposition to his regime. The international community, including India, has asked him to follow democratic conventions and rule of law but Yameen has ignored the pleas as he is being supported by China and Pakistan.

The opposition in Maldives is looking towards India – given the cordial relations between the two countries – to help them out in this crisis. But given the fact that Yameen is now leaning more towards China and its puppet Pakistan, India does not have much influence with him. Further, given the geo-politics at play, military intervention is no longer an option. Maldives occupies the centre of the Indian Ocean. Both China and Pakistan are very much interested to reduce India’s influence in that country. But that does not mean India will let go.

When Yameen decided to send his emissary to ‘friendly’ nations, he wanted him to visit India first on February 8. But since external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj is visiting Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Modi was to leave on a three-nation tour, India declined to receive him. It is being seen as a snub to Yameen. But it is not in India’s interest to push Yameen into the arms of China and Pakistan. India has to be pro-active in finding a solution to the crisis in the island nation.

Modi discussed the issue with US president Donald Trump over telephone. India is also coordinating with other nations who have condemned the turn of events in Maldives. But knee-jerk reactions from India will not be well received in Maldives. As it is, the people of Maldives have already started seeing India as an unpredictable neighbor, friendly when it suits its own concerns and cold otherwise. Hence, India must apply its own policy vis-à-vis Maldives and not follow the lead of Western nations. Otherwise China will usurp India’s place in the scheme of things there.

image courtesy: ontheworldmaps.com