November 21, 2024

Karnataka Elections: No-Holds-Barred Contest

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2023-03-30 06:23:07

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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.

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With the Election Commission (EC) announcing May 10 as the date for holding elections in single phase in Karnataka, the stage is set for what is going to be one of the most fiercely contested state election before the 2024 general elections. The voting pattern in Karnataka shows that both the BJP and the Congress are equally supported by the electorate and even a small swing or favourable alliances can tilt the scale in favour of either. Then there is the JD(S) which, despite losing favour with the voters, still retains a loyal base in some pockets and is hoping to play kingmaker once more.

Both the BJP and the Congress are trying to control infighting in their respective parties. There are many factions in both the parties which work at cross purposes and are likely to dent their chances in several seats if not controlled. The BJP is also up against the anti-incumbency factor and the fact that the incumbent government is usually voted out by the people in the state. The state is going to witness triangular contests in most seats and the JD(S) can hope to win not more than 30-35 seats, enough to give it bargaining power if the elections throw up a fractured mandate.

In 2018, the Congress got 38% vote share, more than the BJPs 36.2% but won only 78 seats while the BJP won 104. The JD(S) got 18.4% votes and won 37 seats. The BJP formed the government first as the single largest party despite Congress-JD(S) having the numbers due to a post-poll alliance. B S Yeddiyurappa resigned without facing the trust vote and then the Congress- JD(S) formed the government with H D Kumaraswamy as chief minister. The alliance government lasted just 14 months and defections from Congress meant that the house majority shrank and Kumaraswamy lost the trust vote. Yeddiyurappa once again became chief minister in 2019.

This time too, if there is a hung assembly, there is likely to be horse trading. The BJP is going all out to tell the people not to vote for the JD(S) to avoid a fractured mandate but Kumaraswamy drew huge crowds in his Pancharatna Yatra. Then there is the caste factor and the minority factor (the state had witnessed huge protests against the order banning the hijab). While the BJP is hoping that it will romp home due to Prime Minister Modi's appeal with the voters and the fact that the Congress is divided, the Congress is going to pin the BJP on corruption. It is going to be a no-holds-barred contest with much at stake for both the Congress and the BJP.