Punjab: Clear Winner Or Hung Assembly?
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-02-20 03:05:17
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator.
View all posts by this Author
For the first time in history, the people of Punjab will be spoilt for choice as they vote in the assembly elections today. The state had a history of electoral contests where there were just two or three major political parties involved. Earlier it was the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Congress, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) flexing its muscles in some areas, which were serious contenders. Then came AAP but it was not a serious contender till now. But this year, there will be multiple contests involving major political parties or alliances in almost all constituencies. Apart from the incumbent Congress, there is the SAD in alliance with the BSP, the AAP, the BJP in alliance with a breakaway faction of SAD and Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress and the Samyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM) of some of the farm unions in the state.
The Congress has the most at stake in these elections. It was poised to win in Punjab even one year ago. But the drama in the party since then which resulted in the ouster of Amarinder Singh and the showdowns between Navjot Singh Sidhu and the high command and Sidhu and newly-appointed chief minister C S Channi have spoiled its chances. In five-cornered contests, the Congress is likely to lose both vote share and seats. But with the regional parties flexing their muscles and thinking of an opposition front without the Congress, it needs a win in Punjab to be relevant and be the opposition pivot as otherwise it will remain only in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
The AAP is most likely to gain the most in these elections. Having declared Bhagwant Mann as its chief ministerial candidate after a tele-vote, the party has been carrying out a serious campaign that show cases it claimed work in health and education fields in Delhi to woo voters in Punjab. Most opinion polls have also placed AAP as the frontrunner and even if it does not get an outright majority, it is expected to be the single largest party in a hung house.
The BJP alliance is likely to snatch votes from both the Congress and the SAD due to the presence of Amarinder Singh and the breakaway faction of SAD. But that is likely to help AAP. Although the BJP alliance cannot be called a serious player, if it gets enough seats, it can emerge as the kingmaker in case of a hung assembly. The farmers-led SSM is also in the same position. Although there is anger amongst the farmers due to the now-suspended farm bills, it is not clear if they are ready to vote for a party floated by the unions. The few seats that the SSM is likely to get will give it a handle to bargain in case of a hung assembly.
These polls are also going to define the political future of some stalwarts. SAD is contesting with Sukhbir Singh Badal as its face for the first time. If it goes below its 2017 tally, Badal's future prospects will dim. If Congress wins big, Channi's star will rise and Sidhu will be sidelined even further. But if Congress loses under Channi, Sidhu might emerge as a strong candidate for 2027. Amarinder Singh also has a point to prove and if the BJP alliance performs better than expected, he will remain relevant in state politics. Otherwise, these elections could well be his swansong. But if AAP wins or is able to form the government in case it emerges as the single largest party, Bhagwant Mann will the person to watch, provided Arvind Kejriwal does not call the shots from Delhi.
