India Commentary | Analysis of Indian news/current affairs/politics/business/sports/lifestyle/society

By Prashanta Baruah
First publised on 2022-10-12 01:12:41

About the Author

Prashanta is a freelancer reporting on issues from the North-East

Less than six months are left for Tripura to go to the assembly polls. Will the BJP be able to retain power? Or will the Left Front bounce back? Will a resurgent Congress put up a good show? Or will the newly formed regional party, the Tipra Motha, play kingmaker? The picture still remains unclear unlike 2018. Growing diffidence in the ruling BJP, the emergence of the Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance, or Tipra Motha, led by the scion of the erstwhile ruling family of Tripura Kirit Pradyot Manikya Deb Barman, resurgence of Congress and TMC, apart from renewed support for CPI and CPM, has made the pre poll political landscape very fascinating.

For the last 3 years, the BJP has been grappling with diffidence which has refused to die down even after the state has reached the threshold of the assembly polls. It started after Agartala MLA Sudip Roy Barman was dropped from the cabinet after differences with the then Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb. Then around 4 of his fellow legislators threw their weight behind Barman. While one of the MLAs, Ashish Das, quit the ruling party and joined the TMC, Sushanta Chaudhury was pacified with a cabinet berth to check the influence of the Barman camp. When the central leadership refused to listen to him, Barman joined the Congress which helped the grand old party revive in some pockets. In yet another blow for the BJP, a tribal MLA Brikhaketu Debbarman quit the ruling party and joined the emerging Tipra Motha which is gathering strength in the tribal belt with each passing day. The central leadership of the BJP replaced Biplab Kumar Deb as Chief Minister in May with state party president Dr Manik Saha. This has further complicated the schemes of things within the ruling party since many party leaders opposed Dr Saha even as state president. Very recently the formation of the state election committee has also upset many leaders.

Meanwhile, IPFT, a coalition partner of the BJP, is divided over the support to the party with some sitting MLAs want to merge with Tipra Motha in a major boost for demand for separate Tipraland. But the regional party failed to open its account in the TTAADC polls in 2021 putting a big question mark on its overall acceptability.

Still, the major challenge for the ruling BJP is the emergence of Tipra Motha which is garnering support in the tribal belt holding crowded rallies raising the demand for a separate Tipraland. This has changed the entire course of the electoral politics of the North Eastern state bordering Bangladesh. Both BJP and Congress are busy in setting their houses in order and trying to strike deals with regional outfits for the 2023 assembly polls. But it is not an easy task. Pradyut Deb Burman won't compromise to strike a poll deal. "Our position is very clear. We are prepared to have alliance with any party provided we get a written commitment that our demand for Tipraland is valid. Otherwise, nobody should expect any confabulation with us", he said. This is what he has been repeating a number of times since the last one year. State BJP leadership has been mounting pressure on the high command to talk to Tipra Motha, which is expecting 12 to 15 seats in 2023, though that is being very optimistic.

On the other hand, the entry of Sudip Roy Barman is providing a fresh ray of hope for Congress. Barman, along with other party leaders, has been working tirelessly to revive the Congress in the state. Hundreds of workers joined Congress at the initiative of Barman. The resurgence of Congress seems to have halted the prospect of TMC which inducted Sushmita Dev from Assam Congress. The ruling party in West Bengal lost steam after the party drew a blank in the recent by polls.

At the same time, Left parties have been getting renewed support from the masses after they started raising the issues of price rise, corruption and after the recent orgy of violence. The parties have been pulling in the crowds in many areas where a section of BJP supporters have joined the Left parties. Of late, an informal confabulation is going on among Congress and CPM who are trying to take Tipra Motha on board to beat BJP in 2023. Tipra Motha is still indecisive. BJP also pins hopes on support from Tipra Motha to retain power even by dumping IPFT. According to the observers, all major parties are looking at post poll alliances.

The plight of more than 10,000 retrenched school teachers is likely to be a major issue much to the disappointment of the ruling BJP. These teachers were recruited during the erstwhile CPM rule by allegedly violating major norms and the issue reached the court which terminated them. BJP state and central leadership assured them of help to retain the jobs in the run up to the assembly polls in 20018. But the government could not do anything after the Supreme Court upheld their termination. Even after demands, they were not rehabilitated to help them get rid of poverty. Around 700 retrenched school teachers lost their lives, many, of them even not receiving medical treatment because of abject penury. But the ruling party and government remained mute. This might be one of the major issues that can disrupt BJP's prospect.

Another major worry for BJP might be the orgy of violence that rocked the state at regular intervals. The perpetrators mostly belong to the ruling party and little or no action was taken against them. Also, the Congress leadership has been claiming that a few sitting BJP MLAs will switch sides and join the party. If this happens, BJP would find it very tough to retain power while the Congress will get some space in the 60 member assembly. Tipra Motha is also expected to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government, even though it might not succeed in its main demand for a greater Tripura. However, if the opposition remains divided and the votes split then the BJP will gain.