West Bengal Elections: Fierce Contest
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
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By Linus Garg
First publised on 2021-03-02 09:54:56
About the Author
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
View all posts by this Author
The elections in West Bengal, essentially a two-way contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP, are expected to be fiercely contested and there are chances of widespread violence once campaigning starts in real earnest. This is because the BJP is making an all out effort to topple the TMC government and the latter is leaving nothing to chance in countering the saffron raid. Others like the Left Front and the Congress, along with the newly formed Indian Secular Front (ISF) of Muslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui of the revered Furfura Sharif shrine and Asaddudin Owaisi's AIMIM, are at best bit players whose importance lies in spoiling the pitch for either of the two main players in their areas of influence.
The Left Front and the Congress are a spent force in the state. It is also amazing that despite having a committed cadre base, the votes of Left Front voters seem to have transferred to the BJP, a party that should ideally be untouchable to Leftists. This fact was highlighted in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the state when the vote share of the Left Front dropped from over 23% to just above 6% and the BJP gained more than 22%. Since then, the communists have suffered more desertions and this time, even though they have formed an alliance with the Congress, their vote share is likely to decline further. The Congress had lost more than 4% vote share in 2019 and is also likely to get lesser votes this time.
The BJP is likely to consolidate its position and might add to the nearly 41% vote share in 2019. For some time at the height of the NRC/CAA protests, a situation was created when even Hindus were scared and there was a scramble to lay hands on various documents to prove citizenship/residential status. But that seems to have passed. The BJP is once again trying to bring into play its own brand of divisive politics by projecting the TMC as a party that indulges in minority appeasement. It has also cornered the TMC on corruption (cut money) and Mamata Banerjee's promotion of her nephew Abhishek (pisi-bhaipo). But it remains to be seen whether it can consolidate Hindu voters and win enough seats to topple the TMC government.
As for the TMC, its fortunes rest entirely on the way the Muslims will vote. With Abbas Siddiqui queering the pitch with his ISF and with Asaduddin Owaisi upping the ante by saying that the TMC has done nothing for the Muslims, some Muslim voters might desert the TMC this time. But again, this might not happen for the simple reason that the sizeable Muslim community in the state wants to stop the BJP from gaining West Bengal. They might not want to divide their votes and might vote en masse for the TMC, giving Didi another chance to rule over the state. The TMC is also likely to get some positive votes across religious and linguistic divides due to some excellent initiatives in recent months, especially in urban areas.
The recent opinion polls have suggested that while there will be a sizeable loss of seats for the TMC and a corresponding gain for the BJP, the citadel might not be breached yet. These polls say that the TMC might win 148-164 seats (total seats are 294) while the BJP might win 92-108 seats, with the Left-Congress alliance getting 31-39 seats. A fascinating contest in on the cards and it remains to be seen whether people, as per the new TMC slogan, "bangla nijer meyeke chai" (Bengal wants its daughter) bring back Mamata or will they vote for 'outsiders', as Mamata Banerjee likes to term BJP leaders.
