Will Asasuddin Owaisi Queer The Pitch For The TMC?
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2021-01-04 02:06:50
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
View all posts by this Author
As the dates for the West Bengal elections approach, the state's political scene is getting heated up. Apart from the ongoing turf war between the TMC and the BJP, the bit players are also trying to get their acts together to present the voters with an alternative. The Congress and the Left have already announced an alliance, but they are not likely to make an impact in more than 30 seats. But the entry of Asasuddin Owaisi's AIMIM is likely to queer the pitch for Mamata Banerjee's TMC as it is likely to cut into some percentage of the Muslim votes on which the TMC depends so heavily. Mamata knows the danger and has warned Bengal Muslims not to fall in the traps of "people from Hyderabad" who "take money from BJP". Owaisi hit back by saying that Bengal Muslims have the "least performance in all indicators" and "there won't be any gains by visiting dargahs". He also told Mamata that "Muslim voters are not her jagir".
Owaisi made a low-key visit to West Bengal last week to take stock of the situation and overcome the odds his party faces in winning over the Muslim votes. He knows that language is a huge problem and he has also got to overcome the label of 'outsiders' that the TMC puts on the BJP and any other party trying to enter politics in Bengal. Since his entry is also seen to benefit the BJP, he also has to fight the tag of being a "BJP stooge". Owaisi has wisely started to identify local Muslim leaders who are against Mamata Banerjee. Towards this end, he met Abbas Siddiqui, the nephew of the chief priest at Furfura Sharif, a significant shrine for Muslims in Bengal. Siddiqui has criticized the TMC and Mamata Banerjee in the past for having used the Muslim vote in the state for her benefit without actually having done anything for the Muslims.
Muslims form nearly 30 percent of the electorate in the state and are said to vote enmasse for the TMC, giving it a strong edge in any elections. Hence, any division in their votes will make the party vulnerable. That is why the TMC has also been playing the Hindu card of late to prevent the BJP from consolidating the Hindu vote. From giving money to community Durga Pujas to announcing a monthly stipend for Hindu priests, the party has been trying to woo the Hindu voters who are spooked by the NRC. It has also been playing on their fears of being declared non-citizens under the NRC process. But such overt attempts by the party are seen by Muslims as going against its secular credentials. Further, the TMC is facing poaching by the BJP which is trying to snare some heavyweights from the regional outfit.
One thing is sure though. If Owaisi and the AIMIM get even a small backing, it will become difficult for the TMC to stop the saffron surge. Alone, and in one-to-one fight with the BJP, the TMC might have the edge on paper. But with the Congress-Left and the AIMIM taking away some of the secular and Muslim votes, the advantage will rest with the BJP if the Hindu vote is as consolidated as it was during the Lok Sabha polls in 2019. Although the TMC has been trying to win over the voters through some excellent schemes under the Duare Sarkar initiative, it remains to be seen how the voters respond to the larger challenge of protection of their interests, especially along religious lines. The BJP is likely to put in its all in trying to oust Mamata Banerjee. It is upon her to get the equations right and protect her citadel.
