Lifting The Lockdown Will Not Be Easy
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2020-04-09 16:22:57
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
View all posts by this Author
With Prime Minister Modi rightly talking about a "national emergency" (although the word has acquired negative connotations after Indira Gandhi's infamous use of Emergency to stifle political opposition if ever there was a situation that warranted its use, it is now), the speculation about the manner in which the lockdown will be lifted, or not lifted, on April 15 has gained huge momentum. After continuously studying all aspects on "daily and hour-to-hour basis" and after taking inputs from state governments and health, community and other experts, it seems the government is veering towards a hugely restricted relaxation of the lockdown.
Several things are now absolutely clear. There will not be any immediate relaxation in the travel ban. Flights, as well as long-distance rail and bus travel, will remain suspended indefinitely. Schools, colleges and shopping malls are unlikely to open anytime soon, with educational institutions now deciding to have early summer holidays to avoid loss of classes. Shops selling non-essential items are also unlikely to be allowed to open. There has been no decision yet on local public transport, but it seems suburban trains and Metro services are likely to be kept suspended. As for local or intracity buses, the respective state governments might allow a skeletal service to resume operations. Other modes of transport like the auto-rickshaw and cabs (including app cabs), even if allowed, will have passenger-carrying restrictions in place to strictly follow social distancing norms.
The Group of Ministers (GoM) tasked with suggesting ways for a staggered exit has now been told to come up with a plan to colour code districts according to their vulnerability so that severe restrictions might be kept in place there while less vulnerable districts can slowly return to the new normal of getting on with the job by following norms like wearing masks, avoiding crowding and strictly maintaining social distancing, even in private offices. There is even a suggestion to follow the odd-even scheme for allowing vehicles on roads to keep crowding at the minimum. The idea is clear: allow offices and factories to resume work with restrictions while disallowing long-distance travel and non-essential purchases. This will instill some sense of normalcy and if it goes well, then a call can be taken later on vulnerable districts if the spread of the virus is controlled there.
It is true that saving lives assumes priority in such situations. There is no need to open everything at one go. But it is also necessary to relax restrictions in less vulnerable districts to restart the wheels of the economy on the one hand and reduce the panic in the minds of the people of the other. The needs of daily wage earners have also to be kept in mind as, despite help from the government, these people are suffering the most as they have little or no savings and most have lost their jobs. Having said this, it also needs to be taken into account that the testing process in India has until now almost completely ignored the asymptomatic cases. It has been proved the world over that COVID-19 has been spread more by asymptomatic persons for the simple reason that they go undetected while suspected or confirmed cases are isolated or quarantined to exclude the danger of spreading. Hence, the government needs to monitor the situation even in less vulnerable districts where restrictions will be eased with a hawk's eye and will have to take corrective measures even if a few fresh cases are reported.
The return to complete normalcy is a distant dream and even the 'new normal' that is being talked about will remain a state of siege where the movement of people will be severely restricted. It boils down to a situation where people will be allowed to venture out only for a specific and official purpose like buying essential items, going to the workplace or medical or any other emergency. Social visits, seminars or any other congregations will be something that will have to be forgotten for no one knows how long. Although the original epicentre in Wuhan in China is slowly returning to normalcy, China has also reported a second wave of cases and new hotspots. The virus continues to spread and kill people in Italy, France, Spain and the US, among many other countries. Hence, India will have to be careful in relaxing the restrictions. The density of the population makes the country particularly vulnerable to community transmission. That has to be kept in mind before even partially lifting the lockdown. Although managing hotspots and clusters with an iron hand is a good strategy, even a slight mistake or mishap can cause havoc. Hence, the government needs to be firm and should keep whatever restrictions it thinks are fit to save lives for as long as it thinks they are necessary.
