July 17, 2026

On the Eve of Verdicts, A Nation Waits And Bengal Holds Its Breath

By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2026-05-03 15:09:40

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Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack

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With the results of assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory to be announced tomorrow, politicians across the spectrum will not sleep well tonight, more so in Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala - the three states where the exit polls have not provided a clear or one-sided outcome. The Bengal situation is particularly grave, with clashes between workers of the TMC and BJP, cases in the Supreme Court over deployment of Central staff at counting centres and allegations and counter-allegations over unauthorised entry in strong rooms.

With counting slated to begin at 8 am on Monday, May 4, the state is on tenterhooks. There is concern about widespread clashes, whoever wins. The Centre has informed the state that the 700 companies of security forces, present in the state, will remain there till June. But citizens are rightly worried.

The TMC moved the Supreme Court challenging the Election Commission's decision to deploy only Central Government and PSU employees as supervisors for the vote count, while the Calcutta High Court had already quashed an earlier plea on the same issue. This last-minute legal wrangling is itself a measure of how deep the mutual distrust runs - between the two principal parties, between the state government and the Election Commission, and between the ruling establishment and the electorate it claims to represent.

Kolkata Police imposed prohibitory orders under Section 163 of the BNSS in at least seven areas with EVM strongrooms, after scenes that would be farcical if the stakes were not so high - party leaders making midnight dashes to counting centres, workers squaring off outside sealed rooms, and allegations of ballot box tampering that the Chief Electoral Officer dismissed as baseless. West Bengal CEO Manoj Agarwal stated plainly that there was "no scope" for such activities given the careful monitoring and CAPF presence, but in Bengal's charged political atmosphere, official assurances rarely travel far.

What makes tomorrow particularly consequential is the sheer scale of what is at stake. The election recorded a historic voter turnout of 92.93%, the highest ever in the state - a number that speaks both to the democratic enthusiasm of Bengal's citizens and to the intensity of a contest that has polarised communities, neighbourhoods, and in many cases, families. The campaign was shaped by disputes over electoral rolls and citizenship, border security, women's safety, employment, and anti-incumbency sentiment after 15 years of TMC rule - a confluence of grievances that makes the result genuinely unpredictable.

There is, however, one reason for cautious optimism. For the first time in nearly two decades, West Bengal witnessed an election without a single reported death linked to poll violence - a departure so significant that it deserves recognition irrespective of political allegiance. To understand what this means, one must recall that the 2023 Panchayat elections saw 57 deaths, the 2021 Assembly elections 17, and even the 2024 general elections claimed six lives. That this cycle passed without blood on the streets is a genuine achievement, even if it has not stopped the political theatre outside the strongrooms.

The credit, if it must be placed somewhere, belongs in part to a more assertive Election Commission. The deployment of central forces was more calibrated and extensive, sensitive booths were identified in advance, and the message was clear: any attempt to disrupt the process would be met with immediate and decisive action. Whether that firmness will hold through counting day and its aftermath is the question that will define the coming hours.

Tamil Nadu presents a different and uniquely fascinating dynamic. The DMK faces a stern test of whether its welfare-driven incumbency has translated into durable voter loyalty. The AIADMK-BJP combine hopes that anti-incumbency and alliance arithmetic have finally swung in their favour. But the real wildcard - and the one that has set Tamil Nadu apart from every other state going to polls this season - is actor-turned-politician Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. A debutant in electoral politics, Vijay drew enormous crowds during the campaign, energised a younger demographic that had grown weary of the entrenched Dravidian duopoly, and forced both the DMK and AIADMK to take him seriously. Whether his star power has converted into votes - or whether first-time voters who cheered at his rallies actually pressed the button for his candidates - is one of the most intriguing sub-plots of counting day. A strong showing by TVK could reshape Tamil Nadu's political landscape for a generation. Even a modest one will confirm that the state's two-party dominance is no longer a given.

In Kerala, the Left faces a rare and historic scenario - the possibility of a third consecutive term, something the state has never granted any party. The Congress-led UDF, sensing an opening it cannot afford to waste, has campaigned hard on governance failures and economic distress. The result here will be watched not just for who wins, but for what it says about the durability of Left governance in an increasingly aspirational state.

And then there is Assam, where the BJP is widely expected to retain power, and Puducherry, where personality-driven politics makes every election its own small drama.

By evening tomorrow, the picture will be clearer. Governments will be made or unmade. But before the celebrations or the recriminations begin, Bengal must first get through the day. Its citizens turned out in record numbers, exercised their franchise with quiet resolve, and then watched their leaders bicker over strongrooms like petty litigants. They deserve better - and they deserve peace.

The EVMs are sealed. The security forces are in place. The Supreme Court has been petitioned. And yet, at the end of it all, democracy's fate tomorrow rests not with the judges or the jawans, but with the political workers on the ground - and whether they choose, for once, to accept a verdict rather than contest it. That is the real election Bengal faces on May 4.