UP Elections: The SP Alliance Has Its Best Chance In The First Two Phases
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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By Sunil Garodia
First publised on 2022-02-10 07:28:49
About the Author
Editor-in-Chief of indiacommentary.com. Current Affairs analyst and political commentator. Author of Cyber Scams in India, Digital Arrest, The Money Trap and The Human Hack
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Western UP, commonly referred to as the Jatland, goes to the polls today. Voting will be conducted in 58 seats and it is expected that this phase and the next phase in Braj region where another 55 seats will vote, will offer the opposition, mainly the SP alliance, a chance to snatch a majority of seats from the BJP. This analysis is based on the anger against the BJP in the Jat community due to the new farm laws and the Lakhimpur Kheri incident. But it is also being speculated that the Jat community is divided and their votes will not be consolidated in the favour of the opposition.
That the BJP is apprehensive of losing the support of the Jats was evident in way Amit Shah, uncharacteristically, made repeated overtures to Jat leader Jayant Choudhary and his party RLD to change sides. Choudhary is popular among a section of the Jats and the BJP desperately wanted him in its corner but that did not happen. Hence it is expected that the opposition will put up a good show in this region.
Another factor that will work in favour of the SP alliance is the expected consolidation of Muslim votes. In the past, the Muslim vote was split in a three-way divide between the SP, the BSP and the Congress. This time, since the Congress and the BSP are not being considered as serious contenders, surveys have suggested that more than three-fourths of the Muslim vote is likely to rally behind the SP alliance. If that happens, the SP alliance will increase its vote share phenomenally and get a large number of seats in the first two phases.
But those who are writing off the BJP in western UP are not taking into account the consolidation of the Hindu vote. The BJP has worked assiduously to woo the farmers and the Jats after taking back the farm laws. It has also played the Kairana exodus issue to the hilt to win support among the Hindus. Also, it has worked hard to allot seats to 'winnable' candidates. With its strong booth-level management, the BJP might hold its own even in this region but there is no denying that the winds are favouring the SP alliance. The latest ABP-CVoter opinion poll has also predicted that it is going to be neck-to-neck fight in the first phase.
