Which Way Will Assam Go?
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
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By Linus Garg
First publised on 2021-03-16 07:42:39
About the Author
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
View all posts by this Author
Of all the states going to the polls in March and April, Assam looked to be the only state where the BJP had the brightest chance of returning back to power. But the Congress-AIUDF alliance has changed that perception. Despite the NDA alliance leaving out Bodoland Peopleâs Party and a few other smaller parties and the Congress stitching an alliance with the AIUDF, which on paper gives the former lesser combined vote share as compared to the 2016 elections, the NDA is better placed simply because much has changed since 2016. For one, the NDA vote share had gone up in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA got 46.76 percent popular votes and the UDA 35.44 percent. The AIUDF had got 7.80 percent and even if we add that to the UDA this time, it comes to only 43.24 percent. The 3 percent gap will become bigger as the Congress will be without its stalwart Tarun Gogoi (who is no more) and the BJP will be unleashing the full might of its election machinery and star campaigners in PM Modi and Amit Shah.
Although the two Bodo parties have switched sides (BPP going from NDA to UPA and UPPL going from UPA to NDA), it is not going to make much of a difference. The difference will happen in Muslim votes as the Congress has, for the first time, tied up with the AIUDF and Muslim votes might consolidate in favour of the UPA. If that happens, as it is likely to, the UPA might get a swing of 2 to 3 percent in its favour and matters might come to a head. The AIUDF has considerable sway over Muslim voters and wins 12 to 15 seats on its own. Plus it is likely to influence the results of another 30 to 40 seats. That is one big headache for the BJP and it is likely to paint the Congress-AIUDF alliance as anti-Hindu and try to further consolidate the Hindu votes. It remains to be seen whether such a consolidation will happen as many Assamese Hindus are worried about the impact of the NRC. The biggest thing working for the BJP is the near absence of an anti-incumbency wave and its good record in handling the Covid crisis.
But the biggest headache for the BJP will be the choice of the chief minister. It is being rumoured that Himanta Biswa Sarma, the man credited with having swung the north-east for the BJP, is not happy playing second fiddle to chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal. He has set his eyes on the chief minister's post and is likely to be a strong contender for the same. Although the BJP has steered clear of projecting any one now, the fight between Sonowal and Sarma will be a tough one to resolve. The only option before the party would be to shift Sonowal to Delhi as a minister in the Union cabinet and appoint Sarma as the chief minister if the latter does not budge from his stand. The BJP is presenting a united front as of now, but differences between its top two leaders in the state will be visible after the elections. Against the backdrop of the NRC and the CAA (in a state most concerned about the influx from Bangladesh) and the Congress-AIUDF alliance, the campaign and the result of the elections in Assam will be interesting to watch.
