Which Way Will Tamil Nadu Go After Record Turnout
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
View all posts by this Author
By Linus Garg
First publised on 2026-04-23 16:16:26
About the Author
Linus tackles things head-on. He takes sides in his analysis and it fits excellently with our editorial policy. No 'maybe's' and 'allegedly' for him, only things in black and white.
View all posts by this Author
Tamil Nadu witnessed a record turnout in the assembly election polls today. The usual wisdom says that higher than normal turnout goes against the incumbent. So is the DMK-led alliance on its way out in the state?
Usually, this could have been the case for Tamil Nadu, which does not have a history of poll 'management' by incumbents and also has a tradition of voting a new government every five years. But this time, the entry of actor Vijay and his party TVK, has changed the course. Also, it needs to be known what damage has Mallikarjun Kharge's recent comment, calling PM Modi a "terrorist" done to the DMK alliance.
Vijay has largely campaigned against the DMK-led alliance, steering clear on any attacks on the NDA, led by the AIADMK. But the negatives for the NDA alliance outweigh the positives from Vijay's stance. For, the opposition votes are going to be split between TVK and the alliance and that might blunt the anti-incumbency factor, allowing the DMK to scrape through.
The turnout surge in Tamil Nadu tells you something significant is happening, but it does not reliably tell you who benefits. You need to know who the voters have voted for, has Vijay made a significant dent in DMKâs votes and whether the split in opposition votes is enough to allow the DMK to go first past the post before drawing any conclusion.
